What the USWNT needs to qualify for the Women’s World Cup Round of 16: All possible outcomes

The United States women’s national team remain firm favourites to win the Women’s World Cup 2023 in Australia and New Zealand but have made life slightly difficult for themselves to get past the group stage after being held to a 1-1 draw against the Netherlands.

Vlatko Andonovski’s side posted a solid if unspectacular 3-0 victory over tournament debutants Vietnam in their opening game in Auckland, with Sophia Smith the star of the show with two goals. Fellow attacker Alex Morgan uncharacteristically missed from the penalty spot, which would prove costly if goal difference were to come into play.

Related: How each team at the Women’s World Cup can qualify for the knockout round

The tie against the Dutch leaves the USWNT on four points from two matches, although it could have been worse after Jill Roord gave the Oranje an early lead. The Stars and Stripes battled back to clinch a point thanks to Linsdey Horan’s second goal of the World Cup and move to the top of the Group E standings, ahead of the Netherlands on goal difference.

What do the United States need to do against Portugal?

Portugal’s win against Vietnam on Thursday, which moves them on to three points, means there is an element of danger for the United States ahead of their last group game against the European side in Auckland on Tuesday 1 August.

If the USWNT beat Portugal

Let’s be clear, the USWNT will be overwhelming favourites to beat Portugal and should do so. The Portuguese are playing in their first ever World Cup and have nothing like the quality on their roster compared to their upcoming opponents. However, they will head into the game on a high after a comfortable victory over Vietnam and have absolutely no pressure on them.

If the United States win, they are through. To qualify as group winners, they have to hope they maintain their goal difference advantage (+2) over the Netherlands, who face the Vietnamese, the weakest team in the group and already eliminated, in their last group match.

If the USWNT draw against Portugal

A tie would also be enough to see the USWNT through, as they would finish the group on five points, with a draw taking the Portuguese onto four. However, they would almost certainly end up finishing second, with the Dutch unlikely to slip up against Vietnam.

If the USWNT lose against Portugal

This is where the danger lies. Should Andonovski’s team lose to Portugal (unlikely, but stranger things have happened in soccer), you can be fairly sure they will be going home early. They would end the group on four points, two fewer than the Portuguese, and the Netherlands would only have to take a point off Vietnam to get to five.

The USWNT could still qualify for the knockout stages with a defeat, although that would depend on them losing to Portugal by a significantly bigger margin than by which the Dutch lost to Vietnam (you can probably forget about this scenario, if we’re being honest).

Who could the USWNT play in the Women’s World Cup 2023 round of 16?

The winners of Group E will take on the runners-up of Group G (containing Sweden, Italy, Argentina and South Africa) in the round of 16 in Sydney on Sunday 6 August, while the runners-up will face the winners of that group in Melbourne on the same day.