Where do Manchester United need to finish in the Premier League to qualify for the Champions League?

The 2023/24 season hasn’t exactly gone according to plan for Erik Ten Hag’s Manchester United. After finishing third last term, The Red Devils have regressed and now need a minor miracle to qualify for the 2024/25 Champions League, having been eliminated in the group stage this year.

How many Premier League teams will qualify for the Champions League in 2024/25?

With the next edition of Europe’s elite club competition expanding from 32 teams to 36, there are more places up for grabs than ever before. However, at the time of writing, we still don’t know whether four or five English teams will be playing in the Champions League group stage next season.

Two of the extra six places will go to the two countries whose clubs best performed in European competitions in 2023/24. That doesn’t just include the Champions League, but also the Europa League and Europa Conference League. All three competitions carry the same importance when it comes to coefficient points (two for a win, one for a draw, zero for a defeat, plus bonuses for reaching different stages), so performing well in the “lesser” tournaments is just as crucial.

Which two leagues will get an extra UCL group stage place?

Ahead of the quarter-finals of the three competitions, Serie A (Italy) and the Bundesliga (Germany) lead the way, meaning those two leagues would gain an extra Champions League spot if the season ended now. With four Italian teams still left in European competition, Serie A should be far enough ahead of third (England’s Premier League) to get a fifth UCL place.

Germany, however, could quite easily surrender second to England by the time the Champions League final is played at Wembley on 1 June. The Bundesliga is slightly ahead of the Premier League in terms of coefficient points, although there are only three German clubs through to the quarter-finals, compared to five English teams.

The results of the Arsenal against Bayern Munich (Champions League) and Bayer Leverkusen versus West Ham (Europa League) could therefore prove decisive. Should Bayern win, they could they face Manchester City in the UCL semi-finals, which may also be vital.

How can Manchester United qualify for the 2024/25 Champions League?

But even if the Premier League does snatch an extra Champions League place away from the Bundesliga, Manchester United will need end a superb end to the season to get it.

The Red Devils are 12 points behind fourth-placed Aston Villa, although they do have two games in hand, starting with Sunday’s fixture against title-chasing Liverpool.

Tottenham Hotspur currently occupy fifth spot, five points ahead of United having played the same number of matches. The 20-time champions also have a number of teams lurking just behind them who could leapfrog them in the coming weeks if their form doesn’t pick up. Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City are certain to qualify.

With 24 points still available, the Mancunians can still make it back into the Champions League, although they surely can’t afford to drop many points at all in their last eight Premier League fixtures.