The World Cup’s new 48-team format means just one victory in the group stage could be enough for some teams to qualify for the round of 32. After a 2-0 win over South Africa in their opening game of the tournament, Mexico are already on the verge of securing a place in the knockout stage before facing South Korea in their second game on Thursday.

As has traditionally been the case, finishing in the top two of Group A will see El Tri safely through to the round of 32, the additional knockout round introduced as part of the World Cup’s expansion.

A win guarantees Mexico a place in the knockout stage

A victory over South Korea would move Mexico onto six points and ensure they win the group with a game to spare. Because the first tiebreaker is now the “greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned,” per FIFA, rather than goal difference, Javier Aguirre’s team would be certain to finish ahead of the Asian side. Czechia and South Africa can each collect a maximum of four points after drawing earlier on Thursday.

Of course, the new format means eight of the 12 third-placed teams will also qualify for the round of 32. A draw would move Mexico onto four points, which would almost certainly be enough to secure qualification, even if they were to finish third, although that would not be confirmed until later in the tournament.

How Mexico could still miss out

The only scenario in which that might not be the case is if Mexico and South Korea draw, then lose to Czechia and South Africa, respectively, in their final group games. If that happens, all four teams would finish level on four points.

In that case, the second tiebreaker, goal difference, would be decisive.

Mexico could therefore still finish bottom of the group, and miss out on qualification, by virtue of having the worst goal difference among the four teams. Given that they currently have the best goal difference, that seems highly unlikely, but a heavy defeat to Czechia in the final round of group games means it remains a theoretical possibility.

A defeat on Thursday would send South Korea through as Group A winners and leave Mexico fighting to qualify in its final group game against Czechia.

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