Neither Argentina nor France, the big favorite to win the 2026 World Cup

The 48 teams that will compete in the 2026 FIFA World Cup have now been confirmed, and with that, Polymarket, a US-based cryptocurrency prediction market, has revealed the early favourites to lift the trophy.

Surprisingly, neither Argentina nor France, the finalists at the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, top the list. Instead, Spain, led by Lamine Yamal, has emerged as the clear favourite.

According to Polymarket’s projections, Spain leads with a 16% probability of being crowned world champion at MetLife Stadium on July 19, 2026, in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

In second place is England, with an estimated 12–13% chance of winning the tournament, which will be held across North America starting in June.

Despite being the reigning champions, Argentina rank fourth among the leading contenders with a 10% probability, while France occupy third place with 12%.

The top five is rounded out by the Brazil, given a 9% probability, while Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal sit sixth with 7%.

Among the host nations, the United States is rated more likely to win the tournament than the Mexico, despite the recent results during the FIFA international break. The side coached by Mauricio Pochettino is given a 1.6–1.7% chance of lifting the trophy, compared with 1.1% for the team managed by Javier Aguirre.

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