USMNT vs Australia: strengths, weaknesses and the Socceroos threat in World Cup 2026

The USMNT are riding the crest of a wave after a superb 4-1 victory over Paraguay in their opening game of the 2026 World Cup. According to The Athletic’s projection model, that result means Mauricio Pochettino’s team already have a 97% chance of reaching the Round of 32, a curious side effect of the new format with two group games still to play.

Anyway, the first of those will see the Stars and Stripes come up against Australia, who also head into the game high after stunning Turkey 2-0 in their tournament debut.

A win or a draw for either team will guarantee a place in the knockout rounds. With head-to-head record now the first tiebreaker when teams are level on points, the USMNT will go through as group winners with a win over Australia if Turkey fail to beat Paraguay. The Socceroos will finish first in Group D if they take three points in Seattle and Turkey also win or draw their second game.

Much of Australia’s current consistency, though, would have been hard to imagine not so long ago.

From outsiders to World Cup regulars

Australia, who had played in only one World Cup in 1974 before returning in 2006, have become tournament regulars in recent years and are aiming to build on their joint best finish in 2022, when they stunned Tunisia and Denmark to reach the last 16 before narrowly losing to eventual champions Argentina.

The Socceroos suffered the same fate in 2006, their first of six consecutive World Cups, losing to eventual winners Italy at the same stage.

But how did a country that qualified for only one World Cup out of 10 after joining FIFA in 1963 manage such a drastic turnaround?

“It all comes down to our move from the OFC (Oceania) to AFC (Asia) for the 2010 World Cup qualifiers,” explains Copa90 presenter Eli Mengem.

“When qualifying through OFC it was always three years of games against Pacific Islands minnows and then an incredibly hard two-legged playoff against a South American side.”

After years of trying and failing, Australia finally made it via that route in 2006, beating Uruguay in a penalty shootout, but a major change was coming.

“For the next World Cup we had already made a deal with FIFA to move to Asia where there were much tougher opponents, but far more qualifying places,” Mengem continues. “We’ve found that much easier to manoeuvre, as whilst there may be a few more losses there are a lot more chances and it doesn’t come down to one-off matches.”

The expansion from 32 to 48 countries, which means eight rather than five AFC teams qualify directly, means we should get used to seeing the boys in Green and Gold at future tournaments too.

Tony Popovic has kept Australia moving forward

Can Australia go one step further and reach new heights at the World Cup?

“Expectations are high on the back of our last World Cup appearance where we made the knockout stages for only the second time,” says Mengem. That opening 2-0 win over Turkey, built on a stout defensive display, counterattacking threat and fine goalkeeping from youngster Patrick Beach, has only added to that belief.

Our Aussie insider, however, isn’t getting carried away.

“I personally don’t expect anything. Our squad has very few standout players and on paper every other squad in our group is better. So I am adopting the stay humble approach and hoping slow and steady wins the race.”

The man looking to take Australia over the line, wherever that may be, is former Socceroo Tony Popovic, best known to English fans for his five-year spell with Crystal Palace, including one season in the Premier League.

Popovic has big boots to fill after predecessor Graham Arnold led Australia to the last 16 in Qatar before resigning in September 2024 following a poor start to World Cup qualifying.

Popovic steadied the ship immediately, with Australia unbeaten in their final eight qualifiers, in which they faced both Japan and Saudi Arabia twice.

“It’s hard to say exactly what it is Popovic has done,” explains Mengem. “He’s definitely installed more discipline and tightened things up all over the pitch.

“He took over a team that had grown stale under Graham Arnold, who, to be fair, had done wonders for us in the previous World Cup. But he couldn’t find that magic again and had us looking like we might miss the tournament.

“Popa came in, turned things around instantly and qualified us with a game to spare with huge wins against Saudi Arabia and Japan.”

Nestory Irankunda: the man the USMNT must stop

An even more impressive win over Turkey followed in Australia’s opening Group D game, lit up by a stunning first goal from 20-year-old winger Nestory Irankunda. The move started with a quick release from Beach and an excellent forward pass from Paul Okon-Engstler, three players at the heart of their nation’s next generation.

Mengem has no doubt about where the Socceroos’ main attacking threat lies.

“Two words. Nestory Irankunda. The most talented Socceroo I think I have ever seen.”

Born to Burundian refugees in Tanzania, Irankunda moved to Australia when he was three months old, first to Perth and then Adelaide. After making his debut for Adelaide United at 15, he scored 16 goals in 61 senior games before joining Bayern Munich, where he split time between the reserves and a loan spell at Swiss club Grasshopper Zurich.

Last season, Irankunda played 37 games for Watford and established himself as a key player for the Socceroos, earning 16 caps and scoring six goals.

Otherwise, this Australia side is built on the collective rather than individuals, which served them well in their opening game and will again be key against the United States.

“We don’t have any fully fledged European stars in our squad,” Mengem points out. “In fact, we only have one player in a major European first division, and most play in second divisions across Europe.

“Technically, every other team is better than us on paper, but we are better than the sum of our parts, and if you can stop that collective energy, that’s the way to get past us.”

Based on the win over Turkey, that might be easier said than done.

“But you’ll need luck cause our boys in Green and Gold are pretty damn tight!”

Get closer to the game! Whether you like your soccer of the European variety or that on this side of the pond, our AS USA app has it all. Dive into live coverage, expert insights, breaking news, exclusive videos, and more. Plus, stay updated on NFL, NBA and all other big sports stories as well as the latest in current affairs and entertainment. Download now for all-access coverage, right at your fingertips – anytime, anywhere.

And there’s more: check out our TikTok and Instagram reels for bite-sized visual takes on all the biggest soccer news and insights.