What the USMNT need against Australia to qualify for the World Cup round of 32: All possible outcomes
Mauricio Pochettino’s side could book its place in the knockout stage with a game to spare. Here’s every qualification scenario against Australia.
The World Cup’s new 48-team format means just one victory in the group stage could be enough for several teams to qualify for the round of 32. After their impressive 4-1 win over Paraguay in their first game of the tournament, the USMNT are already on the verge of securing a spot in the knockout stage before facing Australia in their second fixture on Friday.
As has traditionally been the case, finishing in the top two of Group D will see the United States safely through to the round of 32, the additional knockout round introduced as part of the World Cup’s expansion.
What happens if the USMNT beat Australia?
A victory over Australia would move the USMNT onto six points, guarantee a top-two finish and send them through to the knockout stage with a game to spare.
Because the first tiebreaker is now the “greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned,” per FIFA, rather than goal difference, Mauricio Pochettino’s team would be certain to finish ahead of both the Socceroos, who could still reach six points by winning their final game, and Paraguay, whom the Americans have already defeated.
A win on Friday would also see the USMNT clinch first place in the group if Turkey then fail to defeat Paraguay later in the day.
Can the USMNT qualify with a draw?
Of course, the new format means eight of the 12 third-placed teams will also qualify for the round of 32. A draw would move the Stars and Stripes onto four points, which would almost certainly be enough to secure qualification as one of the best third-placed teams at worst, although that will not be confirmed until later in the tournament.
The only scenario in which that might not be the case is if the USMNT and Australia draw, then the remaining games in the group result in all four teams finishing level on four points.
In that case, the second tiebreaker, goal difference, would be decisive.
The USMNT could therefore still finish bottom of the group and miss out on qualification by virtue of having the worst goal difference of the four teams. Given that they currently have the best goal difference, that seems highly unlikely, but a heavy defeat to Turkey in the final group game and a big Paraguay win over Australia would make it theoretically possible.
What if the USMNT lose?
A defeat for Pochettino’s team on Friday would ensure Australia qualify for the round of 32 and leave the Americans fighting to qualify in their final game against Turkey in Los Angeles on June 25.
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