If the 2026 World Cup hadn’t expanded to 48 teams, Brazil, unthinkably, would have needed a playoff to qualify. They went through three different managers. They lost six of their 18 qualifying games. Never before had they collected so few points in that format. They suffered their first ever home defeat in World Cup qualifying to bitter rivals Argentina, who also thumped them in Buenos Aires. They only reached the quarterfinals of the 2024 Copa América. But none of the above matters. This is Brazil. And this is the World Cup, a tournament they have won a record five times.

“I’m part of some groups of football journalists and coaches in Brazil,” explains Brazilian coach Thomas Farines, “and there they are all thinking, we’re going to get our sixth star. I have to be honest, I’m slightly more skeptical about that.”

For those of us of a certain age, the words “Brazil” and “World Cup” go together like milk and cookies. Outside Brazil, there is a perpetual feeling that O Seleção are a formidable team to be reckoned with at the tournament, no matter what. But has the confidence of Brazilian fans been knocked by a 24-year World Cup drought and multiple recent knockout-round disappointments, capped by the 7-1 semifinal thrashing by Germany on home soil in 2014?

“Brazilians are quite confident anytime we go to a World Cup,” says Farines. “We are always favorites. There’s a reason why we have five stars and we are still the only country that has never been absent from a World Cup.

For some, superstition also plays a factor.

“Brazil is a very interesting country because we have these beliefs like, oh, it’s been 24 years since the last time we won the World Cup. The last time that we won before, between 1970 and 1994, it was 24 years. Between 2002 and 2026, that’s 24 years. So there’s all this aura surrounding it.”

Brazil has been here before

History suggests that Brazil, who face Morocco, Haiti, and Scotland in the group stage, don’t need to be flying before the tournament to go deep. Ahead of lifting the World Cup for the fourth time in 1994, Brazil had to beat Uruguay in their final qualifying game just to book their place in the United States.

They were victorious again eight years later, although it was far from a smooth passage to Japan and South Korea.

“If we go back a few years into the past, right before the 2002 World Cup, we almost didn’t qualify,” recalls Farines. “We were in big trouble. We changed coaches, all the best Brazilian coaches were there. And then they took Luiz Felipe Scolari and he managed to create something. A bit like now.”

Carlo Ancelotti is making Brazil Brazilian again

The 2026 version of Scolari, of course, is Carlo Ancelotti, the manager who has masterminded five Champions League triumphs, two more than anyone else. The Italian is Brazil’s first solo foreign coach in 112 years, although Farines believes he’s already shown himself to be more Brazilian than many of his Brazilian predecessors.

“If you think about the last few coaches, we’ve been playing too much as a European national team. I feel that the way that Ancelotti is coaching the national team, he’s giving the team more freedom to play as a Brazilian team. So in a way, he’s being more Brazilian than certain Brazilian coaches.

“And he has given the keys of the car to Vinicius Junior, who is at the moment our best player.”

Can Vinicius Jr. finally dominate for Brazil?

The Real Madrid star has received criticism in his homeland for not consistently reaching the same heights for Brazil as he has for his club. Although goals aren’t the only measure, Vinicius has scored only nine times in 49 caps (0.18 goals per game), compared to 128 goals in 376 appearances for Madrid (0.34 per game).

Farines, however, believes that could soon change.

“I feel that the way he plays football, it’s too predictable, he always does the same trick.

“So he needs to go back to that Vinicius we saw at Flamengo when he did crazy things at the age of 16, 17. He needs to get back that freedom and slowly in the national team, they’re creating the space and the possibilities for him to have it.”

Ancelotti may have handed Vinicius the keys, but now Brazil needs him to drive them to a sixth World Cup.

Yet despite Vinicius’ importance, no player generates stronger emotions in Brazil than Neymar, who is on the roster for the 2026 tournament despite a three-year injury nightmare that has severely limited his time on the field.

The former Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain superstar, now back home with Santos, suffered another fitness setback in the buildup to the World Cup, meaning we don’t exactly know when we’ll see him, or what kind of shape he’ll be in.

“When it was announced that Neymar is back, it was like a national celebration,” says Farines.

But why? Neymar is undoubtedly one of the most gifted players of his generation, but it’s been years since we saw him perform anywhere near his best.

“It’s like Memo Ochoa from Mexico. To bring someone that has experience, that has a good character, it helps the other players. Most of these players have Neymar as their idol. To me, having Neymar seems to bring them tranquillity.

“Ten years ago, if Neymar continued in the same way, he would be able to give you something, even injured. And I know that he can still shine.”

The Neymar dilemma

Despite the emotional lift Neymar provides, Farines is unsure whether selecting a half-fit veteran is really what’s best for Brazil at this World Cup.

“Frankly, I have my doubts. It’s fitness, but it’s also because we have two kids in the squad, Endrick and Rayan. They are superstars in the making. I would be very disappointed if they lose playing time to give him opportunity when he’s not ready yet.

“But if Neymar comes back with another star on the jersey, that’s the perfect ending for his career.”

Brazil’s biggest injury blow

If the 34-year-old is deemed fit enough to play some part, he could help fill the gap left by Chelsea teenager Estevão, the surprise player many in Brazil, Farines included, identify as Brazil’s most significant injury absentee.

“Estevão is our biggest loss for this World Cup. Second, I would put Rodrygo. They are the creative players. They are the players that can create a difference in a matter of seconds and they think faster than the other players.

“Not having these two is losing a little bit of our soul. Estevão is an old-school number 10, so maybe you have to ask yourself, why have we never seen him play as a number 10? Because nowadays, the number 10s are put on the wings, like Raphinha, Estevão and many others, like Messi.

“Not having his creativity on the right wing is a big loss.”

Yet none of those concerns has shaken the belief that this team can still add a sixth star.

Brazil still believes. Over the next month, we’ll find out whether that faith is justified.

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