Ukraine - Russia border crisis | News summary 16/02
Ukraine crisis: latest updates
Ukraine - Russia crisis: headlines
- Ukrainian President Zelensky: "We will defend ourselves"
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov tells President Putin: "[diplomatic] possibilities are far from being exhausted"
- US media mistakenly claimed that a Russian invasion was set for Wednesday, 15 February
- Crude oil prices exceed $100 a barrel as global supply is threatened - how have the stock markets been affected?
- Russia maintains a significant military presence on the border with Ukraine, prompting fear of imminent invasion
- Global markets fall due to unpredictable situation in Eastern Europe
- NATO chief warns that bombs could fall "at any minute"
- EU states that Russian Nordstream pipeline investment could be under threat if Moscow invades Ukraine
- Russian defence ministry claimed that it was withdrawing troops but President Biden says the US has not been able to verify Russian claims.
Related stories:
US says Russian withdrawl "false" alleging 7,000 more troops added
New estimates now put Russian forces amassing at the border and surrounding Ukraine at over 150,000 with the inclusion of more troops in recent days. Russia had annouced that some of its troops were returning to their home bases but Western leaders were skeptical and President Biden said on Tuesday any withdrawl would be "good" but had not yet been verified.
Scholz and Biden call Ukraine situation "extremely serious"
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and US President Joe Biden agree the situation in Ukraine must be assessed as "extremely serious" as there is still a risk of further Russian military aggression, German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit said on Wednesday.
"Maximum vigilance" is needed as there has been no significant withdrawal of Russian troops so far, Hebestreit said in a statement after Scholz's phone call with Biden following the German chancellor's trips to Kyiv and Moscow.
At the same time, both leaders welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin's statement that diplomatic efforts should continue, the spokesperson said.
Scholz and Biden agreed it was important to move towards the implementation of the Minsk peace agreements negotiated by Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany in 2015 and to make progress in the Normandy format - a grouping of envoys from those countries that has met periodically since the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea - with the support of Germany and France, Hebestreit said.
(Reuters)
'War' has been in the headlines for nearly all of 2022, writes AS USA's Oli Povey, but the only person who knows if war will happen is not sat behind a laptop in the US.
Gold and oil prices rise as a result of Ukraine crisis
Oil and gold rose on Wednesday after NATO and the United States said Russia was increasing its troop build-up near Ukraine, while a dovish reading of minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting helped stocks close mostly flat on Wall Street.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data and higher inflation readings from Canada and Britain added to the outlook for tighter monetary policy worldwide, but geopolitical tensions kept markets for the most part focused on the Ukraine standoff.
Fed policymakers agreed it was time to raise interest rates but that any decision would depend on an analysis of inflation and other data each time they met, minutes from their two-day meeting in late January showed.
U.S. warns against Russian false claims being used as pretext for Ukraine invasion
The United States warned on Wednesday that Russia could use false claims about the conflict in Ukraine's Donbass region, including reports of mass graves and allegations of chemical weapons production, to justify an invasion of the former Soviet republic.
U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Washington was yet to see signs Russia was de-escalating tensions on its border with Ukraine. Concern over a potential Russian invasion has not diminished and Russian forces were in fact moving into "fighting positions," he said, despite Moscow's assertion that it was moving some troops back to their bases.
Price said Russian officials and media had planted stories in the press that were "entirely untrue."
"This (the stories being untrue) however has not stopped the Russians from advancing these false claims, to include reports of unmarked mass graves of civilians allegedly killed by Ukrainian armed forces, and statements that the United States or Ukraine are developing biological or chemical weapons... for use in the Russian-controlled territories," Price told reporters at a regular press briefing.
He did not provide details, but the State Department last month published a fact sheet rebutting what it called Russian "disinformation," linking to news stories that quoted Russian officials making similar statements.
Russia still building forces on Ukraine border, says UK defence intelligence chief
Russia is continuing to build its military capabilities on the Ukrainian border, contradicting Moscow's claims of a drawdown of troops, according to Britain's defence intelligence chief.
"We have not seen evidence that Russia has withdrawn forces from Ukraine’s borders," Jim Hockenhull, the defence intelligence chief, said in a rare public statement.
"Contrary to their claims, Russia continues to build up military capabilities near Ukraine," he said. "This includes sightings of additional armoured vehicles, helicopters and a field hospital moving towards Ukraine’s borders. Russia has the military mass in place to conduct an invasion of Ukraine."
Russia 'likely' to launch 'limited' military attack against Ukraine, says Estonian intelligence
Russia is continuing to move troops to the Ukrainian border and will likely launch a "limited" military attack against the country, the head of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service said on Wednesday.
The attack would include missile bombardment and the occupation of "key terrain" in Ukraine, said Mikk Marran, director general of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.
"Right now, our assessment is that they would avoid cities with large populations, as it takes a lot of troops to control those areas. But there is no clear understanding of what avenue the Russian troops might exploit," he told a media briefing held to introduce the service's annual report.
Another possibility could be intensified fighting out of the two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, according to Estonian intelligence. Such escalation is "highly likely," and this way “Russia likely gets plausible deniability and avoids sanctions,” said Marran.
“If Russia is successful in Ukraine, it would encourage it to increase pressure on the Baltics in the coming years," he said. “The threat of war has become main policy tool for Putin.”
Estonian intelligence is aware of approximately 10 battle groups of Russian troops moving toward the Ukrainian border, where 100 Russian military battle groups, or about 170,000 soldiers, are already deployed, the intelligence chief said.
Rouble trims gains as West says no sign of Russian troop pullback
The rouble pared gains and slipped from 75 against the dollar on Wednesday, as NATO accused Russia of sending more troops to join a military build-up around Ukraine after Moscow had said it was withdrawing forces and was open to diplomacy.
The rouble had recovered this week as fears eased of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, after Moscow reported a pullback of some forces from the border.
But the United States and NATO said Russia was still building up troops around Ukraine, questioning President Vladimir Putin's stated desire to negotiate a solution to the crisis.
Russia says U.S. whipping up tensions over Ukraine to block Nord Stream 2
A Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman said on Wednesday that the United States was stirring up tensions over Ukraine in order to block implementation of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, news agencies reported.
Maria Zakharova also said that Washington was trying to grab European gas market share from Russia, according to Interfax news agency.
We're in the window where we believe an attack could come at any time.
Last week, the US said all Americans citizens should leave Ukraine as soon as possible, in case it became impossible for them to be evacuated in the event of war in the country.
Zelensky: "We will defend ourselves"
Speaking on what he has declared as a 'Day of Unity' in Ukraine, the country's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has said the nation "will defend ourselves" against any Russian invasion. "We are not afraid of anyone, of any enemies," Zelensky said in a speech in Mariupol on Wednesday.
Guardian's Andrew Roth explains key Ukraine-Russia questions
The Guardian has put together this concise video explainer in which its Moscow correspondent, Andrew Roth, breaks down the following key questions in the Ukraine-Russia crisis: What does Putin want in Ukraine? Why has the conflict escalated now? And what is Russia hoping to achieve?
With the United States and Russia remain engaged in a dispute on a global stage, it can be easy to forget how little distance there is between the two world powers. Mainland Russia is separated from Alaska by span of water measuring just 55 miles. However, there is one spot out in the middle of that stretch of water where in the winter you can walk across the border separating Russia and the US.
Russian Defence Ministry shows footage of tanks leaving Crimea
President Putin had amassed forces on the Ukrainian border and in nearby territories, including Belarus and Russia-controlled Crimea. Western powers have threatened Russia with sanctions if they do not act to lower tensions in the region and the Russian Defence Ministry has published footage which it claims shows tanks withdrawing from their positions in Crimea. However the US is yet to confirm that the footage has been validated.
Russia's natural supplies of crude oil is a major export market and one that has grown in recent years. Last year imports of Russian oil to the United States in their highest level in a decade and is now the second-largest exporter of oil to the US. How will this affect the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe and will oil prices continue to rise if a diplomatic solution cannot be found?
No evidence yet of Russian withdrawal
US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield has told the foreign press that she is yet to see any proof that the Russia forces assembled on the Ukrainian border have begun to move away from the area. This comes despite the Russia Defence Ministry stating earlier this week that certain groups had finished their training manouvres in the region and would therefore be withdrawing.
Former UK intelligence chief downplays threat of invasion
Is an invasion imminent? The White House has insisted in recent days that Russian forces could attack at any minute but Sir John Sawers, former chief of UK intelligence agency MI6, has claimed that a military incursion was less likely than initial reported. Russia says it is in the process of withdrawing some troops from the region but Western forces are yet to confirm that.
Putin wants assurances on Ukraine's NATO ambitions
“We need to resolve this question [of Ukrainian entry into NATO] now… We hope very much our concern will be heard by our partners and taken seriously."
“As for war in Europe … about whether we want it or not? Of course not. That is why we put forward proposals for a negotiation process, the result of which should be an agreement on ensuring equal security for everyone, including our country,”
Biden doesn't trust Russia on withdrawal claims
US diplomats have been looking for a way to de-escalate tensions in Eastern Europe for weeks, and remain anxious about the situation despite assurances from the Kremlin that it will begin to remove troops from the area. Russia's Defence Ministry has announced that some troops will be withdrawn having now finished their military exercises, but President Biden told reporters at a White House address that he is yet to see evidence of that withdrawal.
NATO says: "We are prepared for the worst"
Western powers have reiterated their intension to support Ukraine in a potential conflict against Russia, threatening President Putin with strong economic sanctions if he was to go through with the offensive. NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said: "NATO Allies have been very clear that any further Russian aggression against Ukraine would come at a high price."
He continued: "We have systematically exposed Russia’s actions, plans and disinformation. To lay bare to the world what Russia is doing and to make it harder for Russia to conduct aggressive actions."
What has Biden said about Russia?
In a White House speech on Tuesday President Biden struck a stoic tone, reiterating his belief that Russia must move to de-escalate tensions, but stopped short of saying the the US could become involved in the potential conflict. Biden appears unwilling to countenance American involvement in European warfare but did say that significant economic sanctions could be on the horizon for Putin.
Russia/Ukraine dispute sets oil prices soaring
President Biden has already faced considerable pressure at home in relation to the price rises and inflation that have beset the US economy in recent months. Americans are being forced to spend more of their montly paycheck on the essentials and the burgeoning conflict in Eastern Europe is also contributing to the problem.
Russia is responsible for providing a significant proportion of the world's oil supply, and talks of economic sanctions could damage the Russian economy and push oil prices even higher.
Biden reiterates US' position on Ukraine
"The United States and NATO are not a threat to Russia. Ukraine is not a threat to Russia. Neither the US nor NATO have missiles in Ukraine. We do not -- do not -- have plans to put them there, as well. We're not targeting the people of Russia. We do not seek to destabilize Russia. To the citizens of Russia: you are not our enemy."
"We will not sacrifice basic principles, though. Nations have a right to sovereignty and territorial integrity. They have the freedom to set their own course and choose with whom they will associate. But that still leaves plenty of room for diplomacy and for de-escalation. That's the best way forward for all parties in our view."
In a press conference earlier this week Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that the country would hold a national day of solidarity on Wednesday, a light-hearted remark designed to show how positive the country was remaining in the face of Russian movement on the border. However his quip was seized upon by many media outlets, who took his comments as evidence that Ukraine was expecting an invasion imminently.
So what was said, and how did President Zelensky's words get so distorted?
Have Russian forces pulled back from the Ukrainian border?
The tense situation on the Ukrainian border may be slowly de-escalating as Russia announced that it will begin removing troops from the areas around Ukriane, as they have now completed their training exercises. But the West is yet to see any evidence of this withdrawal, prompting concern that Russia remains ambitious in the region and could still launch an attack at a moment's notice.
Russia claims it is withdrawing troops
In response to growing concern about Russian movement in Easter Europe, the Russian Defence Ministry has announced that it is withdrawing some troops as they have now finished their scheduled training manouvres in the region. However US authorities have not yet confirmed that this is actually the case.
In a White House address on Tuesday, President Biden warned that the situation remains urgent: "This is about more than just Russia and Ukraine."
Biden gives White House address on the situation in Ukraine
After suffering a major foreign policy embarressment in Afghanistan last year, President Biden is eager to show to strong front in opposition to Russian movement in Easter Europe. The President yesterday gave a speech outlining the steps that the US is willing to take, warning Russia about potential economic sanctions if it transgresses.
AS USA's dedicated Russia-Ukraine live feed
The situation in Eastern Europe is thought to be very fluid with Russian forces remaining camped out along the Ukrainian border. In recent days a spokesperson from the Russian Defence Ministry claimed that troops were being withdrawn from the region, but President Biden has warned that he is yet to see any clear proof of that.