1,300-pound NASA satellite will make fiery return home: Where will it crash on Earth? Is there a risk of being hit?

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has announced that its Van Allen Probe A satellite will be making a fiery return to Earth at around 7:45 p.m. EDT on March 10, 2026, give or take 24 hours. That is according to a U.S. Space Force prediction from yesterday.

The spacecraft weighs approximately 1,323 pounds, roughly equal to a medium-sized horse, and has been orbiting Earth since 2012 along with its twin Van Allen Probe B. However, the probes were decommissioned in 2019, seven years after their original mission end date.

NASA satellite making fiery return home early

Van Allen Probe A wasn’t supposed to re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere until 2034 according to calculations made when its mission ended. However, NASA says that those “were made before the current solar cycle, which has proven far more active than expected.”

“In 2024, scientists confirmed the Sun had reached its solar maximum, triggering intense space weather events,” explained NASA in a press release. “These conditions increased atmospheric drag on the spacecraft beyond initial estimates, resulting in an earlier-than-expected re-entry.”

This won’t be a double header though. The spacecraft’s twin, Van Allen Probe B, won’t be making a fiery re-entry until at least 2030 based on current calculations.

Where will it crash into Earth? Is there a risk of being hit by satellite debris?

NASA did not give details on over which part of the planet Van Allen Probe A will make its re-entry into the atmosphere nor its trajectory. As for debris, it is expected that the spacecraft will burn up in the atmosphere, but some components could survive re-entry warns the U.S. space agency.

NASA states that the odds are low to anyone on Earth being harmed by falling debris. The risk is roughly 1 in 4,200, less than the chance over one’s lifetime of dying from a bicycle accident according to data from the National Safety Council.

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