A group of mathematicians calculates the date of humanity’s extinction using a controversial statistical formula: 95% probability

Since the dawn of civilization, humanity has wondered not only about its origins but also about its ultimate fate. Numerous theories have emerged around the question of whether humanity’s extinction is approaching. One of the most notable is the “Doomsday Argument,” first proposed in 1983 by physicist Brandon Carter.

Although the idea was later championed by philosopher John A. Leslie and independently developed by astrophysicist J. Richard Gott and physicist Holger Bech Nielsen, it has also attracted significant criticism. Here is a broad overview so you can judge the theory for yourself.

A disturbing probabilistic argument

If we assume that people living today are random observers within the history of our species, then it becomes statistically more likely that humanity is relatively close to extinction rather than destined to survive for billions of years. The theory relies on the Copernican principle, applied as a tool for estimating probabilities, as well as Bayes’ theorem. Under this framework, it is considered far more likely that we are “average” humans in a species with a limited lifespan than the early citizens of a vast, multi-millennial galactic civilization.

According to the argument, there is a 95% probability that the approximately 117 billion people who have already lived on Earth represent at least 5% of all the people who will ever exist. Since 100% is twenty times larger than 5%, proponents multiply 117 billion by 20, arriving at a maximum population of about 2.34 trillion people. They argue that this figure represents the upper statistical limit for the total number of humans who will ever live.

Based on this calculation, the theory suggests there is a 95% probability that our species will become extinct within the next 17,100 years.

A controversial theory

It is important to remember that this argument is based entirely on statistical reasoning and remains highly controversial today. Many scientists reject it because they believe it oversimplifies the issue and deliberately ignores numerous factors that could dramatically alter humanity’s future, including climate change, pandemics, technological advances, and other unforeseen developments.

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