Bad news for consumers? February CPI report is coming and experts are not optimistic about inflation
As tariffs begin to take effect, economists forecast increases in consumer prices. Here’s when the February CPI report will be released and what the forecasts say.
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, a key measure of inflation. The January report showed a higher-than-expected rise in prices, with the index increasing 0.5% and economists warn that tomorrow’s figures could reveal continued increases across critical sectors.
Tariff delays soften potential price spikes
Any inflationary pressures in the upcoming report, however, are likely to be lower than they might have been if the U.S. had moved forward with tariffs on Mexico and Canada in early February. The White House initially rescinded the rollout of those tariffs before later walking back a 25% tariff increase on imports from both countries last week. While the policy reversal sent stock prices lower, investors remain on edge as they anticipate the short-term losses that could occur once tariffs begin affecting U.S. importers.
Economists predict a 0.3% price increase
According to a FactSet forecast, most economists expect the February CPI to reflect a 0.3% increase in average prices, bringing the year-over-year inflation rate down slightly to 2.9%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2025 is projected to rise by 2.9% year-over-year. https://t.co/h9YkltKK9u pic.twitter.com/C6LE0soum1
— FactSet (@FactSet) March 11, 2025
In January, prices surged 0.5%, meaning that if the forecast is correct, consumer prices will have risen nearly 1% in just two months.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates that the February CPI numbers will be slightly lower, only expecting to see average prices rise by 0.23 percent.
The Federal Reserve aims to keep inflation near 2%, though its preferred measure excludes more volatile goods and services. Still, a rapid CPI increase over a short period is likely to raise concerns among policymakers and investors alike.
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