China betrays Trump and prepares one of the largest orders in aviation history with a U.S rival

China is seriously considering placing an order for between 300 and 500 commercial aircraft from Airbus, in a negotiation that could be finalized in July to coincide with a visit from European leaders to Beijing. If confirmed, the deal would mark one of the largest aircraft orders ever made and further cement Airbus as China’s leading supplier, pushing Boeing further out of the Asian giant’s market.

While the final size of the order has yet to be determined, it is expected to primarily include A320neo models, Airbus’s highly successful single-aisle aircraft family. The deal may also include wide-body jets like the A350, designed for long-haul routes.

Boeing’s declining role in China

U.S. aircraft manufacturer Boeing has seen its presence in China dwindle over recent years—a trend accelerated by the 737 MAX crashes and growing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. Although Chinese regulators have recently begun allowing the 737 MAX back into service, Airbus continues to outpace Boeing in the region.

Current market data shows Airbus has over 1,100 aircraft in service with Chinese airlines, while Boeing has around 600—a significant shift in a market where the two giants once shared dominance.

A strategic win for Europe-China cooperation

The potential deal coincides with a planned visit from European Union leaders to China and could serve as a diplomatic signal. Airbus and the Chinese government have maintained a strong, long-term relationship built on industrial and technological cooperation.

In April 2023, Airbus expanded its final assembly plant in Tianjin, allowing for increased local production. The European group also plans to open a second production line at the site in 2026, further deepening its ties with China’s aerospace sector.

Responding to Asia’s soaring demand for air travel

The proposed order reflects the surging demand for domestic and regional air travel in China. Airbus estimates that the country will require more than 9,500 new commercial aircraft over the next two decades, accounting for roughly 23% of global demand. The rise of China’s middle class, rapid urbanization, and growth in domestic and international tourism underpin this forecast.

The A320neo, the backbone of Airbus’s offering in this segment, is especially popular for its fuel efficiency and lower environmental impact—key considerations in the industry’s shift toward more sustainable aviation.

Trade tensions with the U.S.

China’s move away from Boeing comes as U.S.-China trade and tech relations remain highly strained. Export restrictions, foreign investment controls, and the tariff wars launched under Donald Trump have severely damaged bilateral economic ties.

Although Boeing has attempted to resume aircraft deliveries to Chinese airlines in recent months, little progress has been made. In fact, the U.S. company hasn’t received a new commercial aircraft order from a Chinese customer since 2017—a stark indicator of the unfavorable climate for American firms in the Chinese market.

If the Airbus deal is finalized, it would not only consolidate the European manufacturer’s lead in China, but also bolster its global position versus Boeing, which continues to grapple with production delays, delivery cuts, and regulatory hurdles.

A political signal wrapped in a commercial deal

The massive Airbus order could also heighten tensions between the U.S. and China, as it may be perceived as a deliberate pivot by Beijing toward Europe in a strategically critical sector. From China’s perspective, however, it may simply be a pragmatic choice—favoring a partner that offers greater certainty, a local industrial presence, and reliable delivery guarantees.

This potential mega-deal could reshape the global balance in the commercial aviation industry. Beyond a simple business transaction, it signals China’s intent to diversify its technological and manufacturing alliances away from Washington.

If Airbus secures the agreement, it won’t just win hundreds of aircraft orders—it will earn the strategic advantage of flying with greater independence in the world’s most competitive skies.

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