Don’t be fooled by the quiet hurricane season: Experts warn of possible changes
Despite the quiet being experienced this hurricane season, things looks set to change.
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season has been surprisingly subdued, even though we’ve passed the traditional high point in activity: around September 10 is when tropical storms and hurricanes tend to reach their highest frequency. Typically, the Atlantic churns with several systems by then, but in 2025 the atmosphere has been unusually calm.
Even though ocean temperatures have been warmer than usual, a condition that often boosts storm development, something else has been undermining creation: wind shear. Upper-level winds have been strong and disruptive, inhibiting storms from gathering.
“We do actually have fairly enhanced vertical wind shear,” Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist for the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University told the Scripps News Group. “So it’s stronger than normal. We have what we call basically a tropical upper tropospheric trough. So an area of low pressure high up in the atmosphere and that tends to lead to strong shear.”
The last time a named storm was active was late August. Only one hurricane has formed in the Atlantic so far this season, and the United States felt only one named storm’s impact: Tropical Storm Chantal, back in June.
“Gradual development is anticipated”
However, this is not the end of the news: “A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms,” the National Hurricane Center said, “although dry and stable air is expected to limit development during the next day or so, gradual development is anticipated thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of this week.”
It reported that a disturbance in the open Atlantic has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next five days.
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Once conditions become more welcoming for storms, they’ll begin to form, from which point they can start their journeys west to hit the USA. Hurricane season runs until the end of November, and historically, plenty of powerful storms have formed after the official peak. That means residents along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts should not let their guard down just because the season has started slowly.
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