Emergency situation with the huge Renaissance Dam: three countries prepare for the great water war

Conflicts over natural resources often revolve around oil and gas. But as climate change intensifies, another resource is emerging as a major flashpoint: water.

Nowhere is this more evident than in the growing tensions over Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a massive hydropower project on the Nile River that has put Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan on a dangerous collision course.

The Nile: A Lifeline Under Threat

The Nile River is the backbone of life for millions of people across Northeast Africa, but its waters have long been a source of political friction. Egypt, which relies on the Nile for over 95% of its water supply, views GERD as an existential threat.

Meanwhile, Ethiopia sees the dam as a cornerstone of its economic development and a crucial source of electricity for its 110 million citizens. Caught between these competing interests, Sudan is both politically and geographically wedged in the middle, seeking its own dam projects to support agriculture.

A matter of national security

Tensions have escalated significantly in recent years, particularly after Ethiopia continued filling the GERD reservoir in 2022 without a binding agreement with its downstream neighbors. Egypt has repeatedly called for firm commitments to guarantee its water security, but negotiations have stalled.

Both Egypt and Ethiopia accuse each other of disregarding their interests, and international mediation efforts—including interventions by the United Nations, the United States, and more recently, China—have failed to produce a lasting resolution.

“Unfortunately, one side remains completely inflexible, acting as if this project poses no security risks,” said French security expert Franck Galland in an interview with Vatican News. “Of course, the dam is crucial for Ethiopia’s development, but for Sudan and Egypt, it represents a serious threat.”

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has explicitly framed the country’s water supply as a matter of national security, refusing to rule out military options. In a show of force, he has recently deployed troops to nearby countries like Somalia, signaling his intent to expand Egypt’s geopolitical influence.

Diplomacy at a standstill

For years, negotiations have gone nowhere, and experts warn that misinformation and propaganda are only fueling tensions. A major sticking point is a colonial-era treaty from 1929, which grants Egypt extensive rights to Nile waters and the ability to block upstream projects.

Given these historical grievances, the prospect of military conflict cannot be dismissed—an outcome that would have devastating consequences for the region and could draw in international powers.

One particularly alarming scenario is the weaponization of water access. “The longer we wait, the greater the risk of escalation,” Galland warned. If Ethiopia were to severely restrict Egypt’s water supply during dry seasons, the impact on agriculture and daily life along the Nile could be catastrophic.

A glimmer of hope for diplomacy

Despite the high stakes, there are still diplomatic pathways that could prevent full-scale conflict. One potential solution is a multilateral water management framework modeled after the successful cooperative agreements governing the Senegal River. Additionally, nations like Turkey and China—both with vested interests in the region—could play a pivotal role in brokering a deal.

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The unfolding crisis over the Nile underscores the growing geopolitical importance of natural resources, particularly as climate change exacerbates scarcity. The key to preventing war will be whether Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan recognize the looming danger and find the political will to strike a fair compromise. Without it, the world may soon witness yet another conflict driven by the most essential resource of all: water.

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