Global emissions to continue rising through 2025, says US Energy Information Administration
Scientists have made one clear: avoiding the most severe impacts of climate change requires reducing global emissions. One US government agency warns that we are not on track.
The US Energy Information Agency (EIA) released the 2023 International Energy Outlook this week, and it contained a stark warning: the world is on a trajectory to continue growing total CO2 emissions through 2050, a trend that should demand urgent attention and action on a global scale.
“Our projections highlight a key global insight—global energy‐related CO2 emissions will increase through 2050 in all IEO2023 cases except our Low Economic Growth case,” write the report’s authors. The team believes energy generated by renewables will increase significantly over the coming decades but warned that “current policies are not enough to decrease global energy‐sector emissions.” For the authors, current policy does not account for “population growth, regional economic shifts toward more manufacturing, and increased energy consumption as living standards improve,” which will drive up the demand for energy resources. When energy from renewable resources are unavailable, fossil fuels are expected to fill the gap.
Accounting for these shifts and adapting energy climate policies to ensure that gains in the renewable space can accommodate greater energy use will be essential. This adaptation presents a significant opportunity to mitigate the most catastrophic effects of climate change—for both current and future generations.
Current investment in renewables is not enough
The EIA report shows that governments can anticipate a surge in future energy demand, and policymakers must ramp up investments in renewables or technologies that enhance efficiency. While the share of energy from ‘zero-carbon’ sources is projected to outpace that from fossil fuels, there will still be a significant clean energy gap, leading to a rise in overall CO2 emissions.
Electricity generation from renewables and nuclear could provide as much as two-thirds of global electricity generation by 2050, according to the projections. Battery storage capacity grows significantly in all IEO2023 cases, increasing from less than 1% of global power capacity in 2022 to a range of 4% to 9% of global power capacity by 2050, depending on the case.
Additionally, the report states regional variations in how much energy is generated from fossil fuels and renewables over the coming decades. Increased gas production in the Middle East and North America is expected as countries boost “exports to meet growing demand” in Western Europe and Asia. The report also points to China, India, and countries in Southeast Asia and Africa as countries that “will motivate major crude oil and natural gas producers to keep producing.”
The need for greater global cooperation
However, in these economies, there are great opportunities for countries more dependent on fossil fuels to invest in clean energy alternatives. Wealthier countries must understand that a greater amount of the global carbon budget must be used by emerging and low-income economies. This realization underscores the importance of higher levels of investment to transition their economies away from fossil fuels. The policymakers make clear that this is not happening, and based on reports from the EIA that show expanded investments in fossil fuel infrastructure, these countries are moving in the opposite direction. Development targets and the need to reduce emissions should not be placed in opposition to one another, and ensuring that the energy transition will require planning on a global scale. The EIA report shows there has not been enough planning at this point and that leaders must act quickly to prevent further irreversible damage to the environment. This underscores the essential role of global cooperation in addressing this issue.