Hurricane season doesn’t start until June, but will there be tropical storms in May? Here’s what the experts say

Last year, the Atlantic hurricane season was inaugurated by Hurricane Beryl, the earliest Category 5 storm on record to form in the Atlantic.

Beryl made landfall on Texas’s Gulf Coast, killing 73 people and leaving a trail of devastation of over $8.3 billion in damages. Typically, stronger storms are seen in the later months of the season, which begins in June and runs through November. As the Gulf of Mexico heats up during the summer months, the warmer waters act as fuel for storms moving through the area. Hurricane Milton, another Category 5 storm, made landfall on Florida’s western coast on Oct. 6 after traveling through the Gulf of Mexico. Luckily for the residents in the storm’s path, Milton was downgraded to a Category 3 shortly before making landfall.

Scientists have debates whether or not to move the start of hurricane season to May

The 2024 season, which recorded its first storm, Tropical Storm Alberto, on June 19, is not unusual given the Atlantic’s records. But what does the scientific community say about the prospect of a hurricane or tropical storm forming in May?

Firstly, looking back at the record, we see that although tropical storms have formed in May in recent years, the last time a hurricane was recorded in the Atlantic in May was 1970, when Hurricane Alma reached Category 1 status.

Though the official start to hurricane season is June 1, around a dozen storms have formed in the Atlantic before this date since the beginning of the century. With these six storms materializing since 2017:

A 2022 study focusing on the prevalence of early storms in the Atlantic Basin found that a greater number had been seen since 1990, and that warmer ocean temperatures were a major driver of that increased activity.

A possible benefit to public safety?

The benefit of moving up the start date of the season primarily centers on public communication. The agencies that track and monitor storms are operational all year and are ready to respond to off-season storms. Nevertheless, for the public, announcing a change to the start date would be a reminder that residents in areas impacted by hurricanes should not be caught off guard if a severe storm materializes earlier than they might expect.

However, Weather.com reported last year that in 2021, the National Weather Service had evaluated the possible benefit of moving up the start date and found that it would only capture 1 percent more activity. Based on these findings, the World Meteorological Organization opted to continue with the June 1 date and reevaluate any changes should conditions arise that support such endeavors.

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