Satellites detect a worrying signal in the ocean: a phenomenon capable of breaking climate records is returning

The El Niño climate pattern has officially returned. Here’s what it could mean for the United States.

WMO

Mario Espinosa de los Monteros David Nelson

Update: Jul 2nd, 2026 09:01 EDT

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced earlier this month that the El Niño climate pattern has officially returned after detecting warming waters across the Pacific Ocean.

Forecasters expect El Niño to reach moderate to strong intensity this fall, with a 63% chance that sea surface temperatures in the Pacific will rise by more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). If that happens, NOAA says this year’s El Niño could become a very strong event.

Under normal conditions, trade winds push warm water across the equatorial Pacific toward Asia and Australia, allowing colder water to rise to the surface along the west coast of South America, particularly near Peru and Ecuador.

During El Niño, however, those winds weaken or even reverse direction. As a result, warm water spreads eastward or remains in the central and eastern Pacific. According to the World Meteorological Organization, El Niño events generally lead to an increase in average global surface temperatures.

🆕 WMO confirms: El Niño conditions are developing and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns around the world in the months ahead. Most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate – possibly strong.
Be prepared. More info➡️ https://t.co/htyps0XfsE pic.twitter.com/0dbWunyqyU
— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) June 2, 2026

How will El Niño affect the United States?

El Niño doesn’t affect every part of the country the same way. Its impacts vary by region and can include changes in temperature, rainfall, drought, hurricane activity, snowfall, and even coral reef health. Because every El Niño develops differently, forecasters say its evolution must be monitored closely throughout the season.

Southern California and the Southwest

Across Southern California and the Southwest, winters are typically wetter than normal, bringing an increased risk of heavy rain and flooding. Meanwhile, parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies often experience drier-than-average conditions.

Southern Plains

In the Southern Plains, El Niño usually brings cooler, wetter winters. The region also tends to see fewer Atlantic hurricanes during El Niño years, while the chances of snow and sleet increase slightly.

Midwest

Much of the Midwest can expect milder winter temperatures, especially across northern states. Although cold snaps can still occur, prolonged periods of extreme cold become less common. Warmer conditions may reduce overall snowfall, though storms tracking across the southern U.S. could still bring heavy snow to parts of the lower Midwest. Around the Great Lakes, warmer weather can also mean less lake ice and reduced seasonal snowpack.

Eastern United States

Across the Eastern United States, southern areas are typically wetter than normal as storms move along the Gulf Coast and Southeast. The Southeast also tends to experience cooler temperatures because of increased cloud cover. Farther north, the picture is less predictable, although parts of the Ohio Valley, western New York, and Pennsylvania often see drier winter conditions, while much of the Atlantic coast receives above-average precipitation.

Southeast

In the Southeast, the wettest conditions are usually found along the Gulf Coast and southern Atlantic states, while inland northwestern areas are more likely to remain near normal or slightly drier than average. Daytime temperatures along the Gulf Coast also tend to be cooler than usual.

Hawaii

Hawaii typically experiences a dramatic shift during El Niño. Rainfall is often above normal from August through October, before dropping sharply through the winter. By February, much of the island chain is usually much drier than average, with rainfall gradually returning to normal by the following summer.

Alaska

In Alaska, El Niño typically increases the chances of a milder winter, particularly across the southern and central parts of the state. Snowfall may be lower than normal in some areas, while coastal regions are more likely to see rain instead of snow. However, Alaska’s weather is influenced by several climate patterns, so El Niño’s effects tend to be less predictable than elsewhere in the United States.