Secret U.S. documents leaked: tensions with China on edge

The Washington Post has published a classified Pentagon memo instructing the U.S. military to “prevent China’s takeover of Taiwan” and reinforce security by “taking risks” in Europe and other regions. The document, signed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, was distributed within the Department in March, with many passages marked as “secret/no foreign access allowed.”

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Known as the Interim National Defense Strategic Guide, the memo describes a potential Taiwan invasion as the only scenario that must be prioritized over other threats. Both the first Trump administration and Biden’s presidency identified China as the greatest threat, but this document highlights the main U.S. concern, beyond national defense.

“China is the only threat the Department prioritizes, and denying a fait accompli takeover of Taiwan by China, while defending U.S. territory, is the only scenario the Department upholds,” Hegseth states in the memo.

To achieve this, the Pentagon will “assume risks in other theaters,” deprioritize terrorist groups in the Middle East and Africa (believing they cannot launch international attacks), and pressure allied nations to increase defense spending so they can face threats from Russia, North Korea, or Iran without U.S. assistance.

This implies that the U.S. will be hesitant to support its allies if it has to confront China. Therefore, it expects NATO countries to take on a “much greater burden,” currently understood, during relative peace, as a greater military investment. Poland and Estonia allocate the highest percentage of their GDP to defense, with the U.S. ranking third.

However, the document’s objectives contradict U.S. actions. The memo calls for withdrawing American troops from various global regions, such as the Middle East, while the government insists on engaging in that area, deterring Yemen’s Houthis and pressuring Iran.

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“There is a tension between ‘we want U.S. forces and military dominance worldwide, and we want to be everywhere, but also nowhere’ [...]. This inconsistency will make it difficult for them to craft a strategy,” a Congressional advisor told The Washington Post.

The memo closely resembles a report from the conservative Heritage Foundation, published in August, which advises the U.S. government to deter a potential Taiwan invasion, defend its own territory, and demand that NATO allies increase defense spending.

Ultimately, the memo acknowledges the possibility that the U.S. might overlook developments in Europe, even amid a potential Russian military advance. If European nations increase their military spending, it would “ensure that NATO can reliably deter or defeat Russian aggression, even if deterrence fails and the United States is already engaged or must withhold forces to deter a primary conflict elsewhere.”