Study cites investment needed for Europe to defend itself against Russia without the U.S.
If this production is to be achieved, European countries must increase defense spending from 2% to 3.5%, i.e. 250 billion euros per year.
The Trump Administration’s approach to the Kremlin has put NATO’s security guarantees at risk, pushing Europe to strengthen its military capabilities to withstand a Russian offensive without U.S. support. Now, experts have calculated the exact numbers needed to make that possible.
According to an analysis conducted by the Bruegel research institute and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the European Union and the United Kingdom must add a total of 300,000 troops to their military forces and allocate €250 billion per year to defense spending to face Russia without U.S. backing.
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The troop estimate excludes the nearly 100,000 U.S. troops currently stationed in Europe, as well as the additional 200,000 American soldiers that could be deployed to the continent in case of a conflict.
The report highlights that Europe must focus on developing mechanized and armored units to replace the U.S. military presence. This would require the creation of 50 new brigades, along with:
- At least 1,400 tanks
- 2,000 ground combat vehicles
These figures far exceed the current combined military capacity of Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom.
Additionally, as a response to Russia’s increased military production since the Ukraine war, the EU must produce around 2,000 long-range loitering munitions each year.
€250 billion defense budget: is it feasible?
To meet these defense goals, European nations must increase military spending from 2% to 3.5% or even 4% of GDP, raising a total of approximately €250 billion annually.
According to Professor Guntram Wolff, co-author of the analysis:”Although the scale of investment is significant, it is economically feasible given the EU’s financial strength. The additional costs represent only about 1.5% of the EU’s GDP—far less than the resources mobilized to handle the COVID-19 crisis, for example.”
Some experts suggest that a large portion of the spending could be financed through joint European debt, potentially offering cost-saving advantages over individual national military budgets.
Furthermore, Wolff highlights that increased defense spending could serve as an economic stimulus within the EU, especially in a global context of U.S. tariffs and ongoing trade conflicts.