This is the asteroid that could crash into the Moon in 2032 and leave a crater visible from Earth

Remember a few months ago we told you about a big chunk of rock called 2024 YR4? Well, the asteroid that goes by that name has just had its odds increased for crashing into our Moon.

Is asteroid 2024 YR4 going to hit the Moon?

It first made headlines as a potential city-killer, with early forecasts giving it a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in 2032. That may not sound like much, but it was the highest impact risk ever recorded for a large asteroid – big enough to shatter windows and flatten trees over miles, like the Tunguska blast in 1908.

By February 2024, NASA had ruled out any Earth strike. The updated odds dropped to near zero, and 2024 YR4 was officially cleared from the “worry list.” But just when it seemed the drama was over, astronomers turned their attention to the Moon.

New data from the James Webb Space Telescope, gathered in May 2025, nudged the odds of a lunar impact up to 4.3%, from a previous 3.8%. That’s still low, but enough to keep things interesting.

At roughly 174 to 220 feet long – about the height of a 10-story building – 2024 YR4 wouldn’t endanger the Moon’s orbit. But if it hits, the resulting crater could be visible from Earth with the right telescope, and would offer a rare real-time look at how these features form.

We’ll know more in 2028, when the asteroid comes back into range for observation. Until then, the Moon gets to nervously circle Earth like a boxer watching for a punch that might never come.

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