WEATHER
What is a ‘La Niña’ summer? Will the summer of 2024 be especially hot?
The combination of La Niña and abnormally hot oceans is expected to result in a potentially dangerous hurricane season.
A ‘La Niña’ summer is characterised by cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which influences weather patterns. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the summer of 2024 in the United States is expected to be particularly hot due to the development of a La Niña pattern.
NOAA’s updated climate outlook indicates that above-average temperatures are anticipated across nearly all of the lower 48 states, with the highest chances of warmer-than-average conditions in the western US, southern Plains, and western Gulf Coast regions.
The transition from the current El Niño conditions to La Niña is expected to occur during the summer months, likely by July or August. This transition is a primary driver for NOAA’s hot summer outlook, as La Niña patterns tend to favour warmer and drier conditions across much of the western and central United States.
What specific weather patterns will be seen?
Climate experts warn that the summer of 2024 could potentially be one of the warmest on record for the United States, outpacing the records set in 2021 and 1936. The combination of La Niña conditions and the ongoing effects of human-induced climate change are expected to amplify the potential for extreme heat and other weather-related hazards.
While the western and central US are projected to experience drier conditions, above-average rainfall is expected for a large area stretching from the Gulf Coast northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast, Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic, and southern New England. This precipitation pattern is typical during La Niña summers.
What La Niña means for hurricane season
Additionally, the development of La Niña conditions, coupled with record-high ocean temperatures, could fuel an active Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts up to 13 hurricanes could form in the Atlantic Ocean this year, with at least four reaching major hurricane status. La Niña tends to create favourable atmospheric conditions for storm formation and development in the Atlantic basin.