Who will win the General Election in the UK on 4 July? This is what the latest polls say about the results

It may be a celebration of Independence Day in the United States, but across the Atlantic pond there is also a reason to rejoice for millions who have suffered under the leadership of the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom for 14 years. Well, that is if you believe what the polls tell us about who is going to be taking over.

Labour expected to win big in UK general election

As the UK barrels towards its general election on Thursday, the latest polls suggest a seismic shift in the political landscape, with the Labour Party poised to clinch a historic victory. According to Survation, Labour is projected to secure 484 of the 650 parliamentary seats, surpassing the record set by Tony Blair in 1997. Meanwhile, the Conservative Party faces an unprecedented slump, with forecasts showing a paltry 64 seats – their lowest since the party’s inception in 1834.

How accurate are the predictions?

Pollsters have been under the microscope after several high-profile misses in past elections and referendums. This time around, they are banking on a technique known as Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) to provide a more nuanced picture of voter intentions. MRP delves into the granular details of demographic and regional differences, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than traditional methods. However, the complexity of voter behaviour, especially post-Brexit, continues to pose challenges for pollsters.

Boris Johnson tries to rouse the Tory troops

In a somewhat surprising twist, former Prime Minister Boris Johnson re-emerged on the campaign trail, attempting to drum up support for the beleaguered Conservatives. Despite his perceived charismatic presence, Johnson’s speech was, unsurprisingly, more a nostalgic recollection of his tenure than a robust endorsement of current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

With chants of “Boris! Boris!” echoing at the event, Johnson’s participation actually underscored the deep divisions within the party and the desperation of the Conservative campaign.

What does a Labour victory mean?

If the polls hold true, Labour’s leader Keir Starmer is on the verge of a sweeping victory that could redefine British politics. The implications of such a win are profound, both domestically and internationally, as Labour promises a significant shift in policy direction. The real question, however, is whether a huge win for Labour will be as transformative as the country needs it to be. And given the state that is being left behind by the Tories, it will be far from an overnight fix.

While Labour’s lead appears solid, the first-past-the-post electoral system and the potential for local upsets mean that surprises could still be on the cards. The final hours of campaigning will continue, as parties make their last appeals to an electorate that could reshape the UK’s political scene for years to come.