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MLB

Up to $600 million for signing Shohei Ohtani in MLB Free Agency, according to projections

Shohei Ohtani is one of the biggest stars that baseball has ever seen and in free agency the predictions are that he will set an unbelievably high bar.

Edward Gonzaga
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Shohei Ohtani is one of the biggest stars that baseball has ever seen and in free agency the predictions are that he will set an unbelievably high bar.
DILIP VISHWANATAFP

Shohei Ohtani has become the star of MLB baseball. In a league made up of stellar names, the 28-year-old Japanese two-way player outshines them all.

Everything indicates that the Japanese superstar will make his first foray into free agency at the end of this season, and it is the most anticipated in the history of the Major Leagues, almost guaranteed to shatter all contract records that have come before.

In a report carried out by ESPN in which 26 MLB executives, agents, and experts were surveyed, they revealed their projection about the expected market value of Ohtani.

Six of the experts reckoned that the contract would end up less than $500 million:

  • 4 years/$240 million
  • 8 years/$400 million
  • 8 years/$420 million
  • 9 years/$427.5 million
  • 13 years/$475 million
  • 12 years/$492 million

But tellingly, 14 of those surveyed, projected that the final contract would range from $500 million to $549 million:

  • 9 years/$500 million
  • 10 years/$500 million
  • 10 years/$510 million
  • 10 years/$512 million
  • 12 years/$512 million
  • 11 years/$515 million
  • 11 years/$515 million
  • 12 years/$517 million
  • 10 years/$520 million
  • 11 years/$520 million
  • 11 years/$525 million
  • 12 years/$525 million
  • 11 years/$526 million
  • 12 years/$528 million

The remaining six experts believe that it is likely that Shohei Ohtani’s signature will cost a team in the region of $550 million or more:

  • 10 years/$550 million
  • 10 years/$550 million
  • 11 years/$550 million
  • 12 years/$580 million
  • 12 years/$600 million
  • 11 years/$605 million

Normally, the top and bottom numbers are discounted, seen as outliers in the equation. So you would say that the extremes of 4 years at $240 million and 11 years at $605 million are the least likely outcomes. A settling around the middle of the pack would seem prudent, and that would mean that a contract in the area of $500 million would be the most likely end point.

But this is Shohei. He isn’t just any player. He isn’t even just any superstar. He is the superstar, and a contract less than $600 million seems to be a bargain that is almost too low to hope for.