NBA playoffs, play in, draft options: here’s what’s left to decide on the last day of the regular season

The NBA regular season draws to a close this Sunday, following a penultimate slate on Friday in which every team was in action (Saturday is a rest day for all). This final round will end the permutations and deliver a definitive picture of the play-in field, the playoff bracket and the draft lottery order.

Results from Friday’s games, the full Sunday schedule and the standings heading into the last game of the season set the stage for what remains unresolved.

There was already plenty decided in both the Eastern and Western Conferences, and Friday untangled a few more knots. But several key scenarios will only be resolved on the final day.

Eastern Conference

The top four – and with it, home-court advantage in the first round – is locked in. The Pistons (59–22) secured the No. 1 seed and will have home-court advantage throughout the Eastern playoffs. The Celtics (55–26) are second, with the Knicks (53–28) third and the Cavaliers (51–30) fourth. That places Cleveland on the same side of the bracket as Detroit and Boston, while New York would meet the Celtics in the semifinals with home-court advantage.

Behind them, the picture is far more complicated. The Hawks (46–35) have clinched a playoff berth and avoided the play-in, but they could still finish sixth, though it’s unlikely. They only need one of three outcomes – a win over the Heat, a Raptors loss to the Nets or a Magic win over a Celtics team likely to rest players – to secure fifth place.

The Raptors (45–36) are trending toward sixth and a first-round matchup with the Knicks. They hold the tiebreaker over Atlanta, so they could still finish fifth if they beat the Nets and results elsewhere go their way. A scenario with a Hawks loss, Raptors win and Magic win would produce a Knicks–Raptors first-round series.

The Magic (45–36) could climb to sixth, avoid the play-in and face the Knicks if they win in Boston and the Raptors lose at home to the Nets. They lose tiebreakers against both Atlanta and Toronto.

Further down, the Sixers (44–37) sit eighth, followed by the Hornets (43–38) and Heat (42–39). Miami is locked into the second play-in game and will not have home-court advantage unless they win and Charlotte loses to the Knicks. The matchup will be Hornets–Heat or Heat–Hornets.

Philadelphia still has a wide range of outcomes. They could finish sixth – and face the Knicks – if they beat the Bucks and both the Raptors and Magic lose. They would be seventh, with home-court in the first play-in game, if they win and only one of those teams loses. If the Sixers lose, or if both Toronto and Orlando win, they will finish eighth and play on the road in the play-in.

Western Conference

At the top, everything is settled. The Thunder (64–17) have clinched not only the No. 1 seed in the West but the league’s best record, guaranteeing home-court advantage throughout the playoffs and potentially the Finals as defending 2025 champions. The Spurs (62–19) are locked into second.

Further down, Friday confirmed that the Rockets (51–30) will be fifth and the Timberwolves (48–33) sixth after Minnesota’s win in Houston. The Rockets cannot catch the Lakers (52–29), who hold the tiebreaker, and Los Angeles is one game behind the Nuggets (53–28), also with the tiebreaker edge.

That creates a pivotal scenario: if the Lakers beat the Jazz and the Nuggets lose to a Spurs team with nothing at stake, Los Angeles will finish third, face Minnesota and push a Nuggets–Rockets series onto the Thunder’s side of the bracket. If Denver wins or the Lakers lose, the matchups flip to Nuggets–Timberwolves and Lakers–Rockets.

The Suns (44–37) are locked into seventh and will host the first play-in game. The Warriors (37–44) are tenth and will play on the road in the second – and potentially third – play-in game if they advance, with a chance to become the Thunder’s first-round opponent.

The Trail Blazers (41–40) and Clippers (41–40) are eighth and ninth after Portland’s head-to-head win Friday. Their final games – Blazers–Kings and Clippers–Warriors – will decide the order. If Portland wins at home, they stay eighth and face Phoenix in the first play-in game. If they lose and the Clippers win, the positions flip. A Blazers win or Clippers loss would lock in Suns–Blazers and Clippers–Warriors in the play-in.

Draft lottery scenarios

At the bottom, the three worst records are already set: Wizards (17–64), Pacers (19–62) and Nets (20–61). Each has a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 52% chance of staying in the top four. Washington has secured its pick, which would have gone to the Knicks if it had fallen to No. 8 – now impossible. Indiana’s best hope is to stay in the top four; if it drops to fifth through seventh, the pick goes to the Clippers.

The fourth-worst record is still up for grabs between the Jazz (22–59) and Kings (22–59). If Utah beats the Lakers and Sacramento loses to Portland, they will swap places. The fourth-worst team has a 12.5% chance at No. 1 and a 48.8% chance at a top-four pick, while the fifth-worst drops to 10.5% and 42%.

The Mavericks (25–56) and Grizzlies (25–56) are battling for sixth- and seventh-worst records. Their final games are Rockets–Grizzlies and Mavericks–Bulls. If the standings hold, Dallas would have a 34.5% chance at a top-four pick and Memphis 37.2%. If both lose, a coin flip will decide the order. If Dallas wins, it could drop to eighth-worst depending on the Pelicans (26–55).

The Bulls (31–50) also have little incentive to win in Dallas, though one team must, as they sit just one loss behind the Bucks (32–49).

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