Where is the ceiling for Wembanyama?

Without fear of being wrong, it is fair to say that Victor Wembanyama has lived up to expectations. He has been doing so since he started to be a professional and has continued to do so both in his first season in the NBA and in his first Olympic Games, where he won the silver medal with France after losing in the final to the United States, who won their fifth consecutive gold. The center’s tears after the defeat reveal the competitiveness that a player with unprecedented physicality possesses and one of the players with the most potential to arrive in the best League in the world since LeBron James. The story of the King will continue to take its final steps until he decides. The story of the young Frenchman has only just begun. What remains for him will only be the magic that we can see in something that, in its beginnings, is simply formidable.

In his first season in the NBA, Wembanyama has averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.2 steals and 3.6 blocks. He won the Rookie of the Year award, was on the All-NBA Team, and finished second in the Best Defensive Player voting, behind only Rudy Gobert. It is a remarkable feat for a player who is only 20 years old, who will turn 21 during the upcoming season, and who was also the leader in blocks in the North American competition. And all this with 224 centimeters and barely 95 kilos of weight, something some critics indicated would make it difficult for him to face more physical and muscle-filled bodies. Whatever those people said, they were not correct. Wembanyama has lived up to expectations and even surpassed them, improving his passing and his outside shooting (he averaged 32.5% on three-pointers), something he still has a long way to go in. He has been more influential in the area than outside the basket. But he has shown that he can be a difference-maker in both places, with moments bordering on absolute brilliance.

And all this despite the fact that the Spurs have been a disastrous team. With 22 wins and 60 losses, they have equaled last year’s record and the third worst in franchise history. They also had the second-worst defense in the Western Conference (where they were second to last, just ahead of the Blazers) and have had the sixth-worst record in the NBA in field goal percentage and the fourth-worst in three-point percentage, as well as being the fifth that has lost the most balls. Records that have not mattered to Gregg Popovich, everlasting: both the coach and the Spurs’ management have assured that there is no rush in the training of the young star and that they will not make any false steps. The important thing is the future, and Wembanyama will be the dominator of heaven and earth in the medium term. This scenario could be plausible, considering the impressive start the center has had in the NBA. They seem eager to create a new narrative, breaking away from the long-standing dominance of other main characters—with LeBron at the head.

The new... but old Spurs

It’s not like the Texas team has made much of a move in the summer market. Expectations are minimal, and the objective remains to develop the talent of a Wembanyama chosen as a franchise player from the start, a role that he has comfortably assumed. It is easier to lead one of the worst teams in the NBA than to lead a team aiming for a championship, something the Spurs have not come close to since 2014. It seems unlikely that they will aim for a championship in the short term, given their current roster, which is filled with young players and lacks the necessary talent to compete at the highest level. Although there are some glimpses of potential, the team seems destined to remain in a state of transition without fully establishing itself as a contender.

Harrison Barnes has joined the Spurs organization from the Kings, where he has played for the last five seasons. At 32, it remains a mystery what role he will play in an organization committed to precocity, but he might be a good addition to certain objectives. The most talked-about signing has been Chris Paul. He is considered one of the best point guards in history but has gradually lost his shine. Additionally, he has been seen as a jinx for arriving at successful franchises and ultimately causing them to fail cruelly. A heavenly playmaker who will retire without a ring, the one that eluded him with the Hornets, Clippers, Rockets, and especially the Suns, with whom he was up 2-0 in the 2021 Finals. Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks did the rest. And the dream evaporated just as it had arrived.

And then there’s Gregg Popovich. It’s hard to justify, or at least understand, that he’s still active on his way to 76. Also, at the beginning of last season, he signed a contract for another five years at a rate of 80 million dollars, making him almost an octogenarian if he fulfills it and remains active throughout that process. Far from the rosters of his best days and those countless records with Tim Duncan’s Spurs, the legendary coach has spent recent years watching them come and go with poor teams and inconsequential decisions. Wembanyama was sought and obtained in 2023, just as Duncan was in 1997. But his presence seems more inconvenient to advance than a good decision to form young talents with whom he will not collect another horde of successes. A final stretch of his career that does not prevent recognizing his countless achievements. The board has already stated that he will stay as long as he wants. And there it remains, of course. One more year. And it’s already 28 going on 29. The three decades, barring any surprises, will fall.

What is the goal?

Everything seems to be about continuing to develop Wembanyama’s career, no matter what it takes. Slowly but surely, we are focusing on the medium and long term with patience while also keeping in mind the enormous crisis the team has been experiencing since the end of the unmanageable era of 22 consecutive playoff appearances, similar to the Nationals/76ers between 1950 and 1971. They just couldn’t succeed in being the first team with 23 straight trips to the playoffs, and there were no more miracles left in the pockets of the legendary franchise. One that in this stretch won five rings (the same as the Lakers in that period, although the Angelenos added one more in 2020) and added more victories than anyone else in the playoffs (170) and regular season (1,228). Sublime records and achievements that now seem further away than ever.

Since that streak, the Spurs have had five consecutive absences in the final phase, something unprecedented in the Texas entity, traditionally competitive in the ABA and later in the NBA. In none of those seasons have they reached 35 victories. The 22 victories achieved in 2022-23 helped to recruit Wembanyama. This is an identical record to Wembanyama’s, which is very far from the 56 victories achieved with Tim Duncan in 1996-97. It’s an unfair comparison, given the difference between the squad then and the current one, but it’s logical because Wembanyama has been compared to the best power forward in history. At least, for moment and context, being number 1 in the draft and having ended up in an entity that became a world reference with the arrival of Duncan, who ended his career as one of the best players ever.

It’s hard to imagine that the Spurs can make the playoffs with this roster. The Western Conference is more open than ever, with 11-12 teams vying for a playoff spot and showing considerable equality. However, bad streaks penalize a lot, while good streaks don’t benefit as much. The signing of Chris Paul, who will be playing his 20th season in the NBA and is approaching 40 years old, seems to be more about adding a veteran presence alongside Wembanyama than competing for a high playoff seed. Additionally, there may not be many attractive players available for transfer in a potential February market if the team’s record is reasonably good. Those from last season are still there: Jeremy Sochan, Devin Vassell, Zach Collins... Basketball players contribute more or less to the team’s production and statistics, especially in recent seasons when the team has struggled to avoid falling into a deep hole. With Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes... will the objectives change? It doesn’t look like it. But you never know. After all, the Spurs have Victor Wembanyama. And that’s saying a lot.