Are the Chiefs eliminated from playoff contention if they lose to the Chargers in Week 15?
A Kansas City loss could trigger an unprecedented early exit from the NFL playoffs, but elimination isn’t automatic.
The Kansas City Chiefs are staring at a reality that felt impossible just a few months ago. They could be officially eliminated from the playoffs in Week 15. At 6–7 and clinging to remnants of postseason hope, the Chiefs enter their showdown with the Los Angeles Chargers knowing a loss could seal one of the most stunning collapses of the Patrick Mahomes era.
But are the Chiefs mathematically eliminated if they fall to 6–8 on Sunday? Not automatically, but they’re hanging by a thread.
How the Chiefs can be eliminated in Week 15
A loss to the Chargers doesn’t guarantee the Chiefs are out, but there is a very specific scenario where elimination would happen immediately.
For the Chiefs to be officially knocked out in Week 15, four results must occur:
- Chiefs lose to the Chargers
- Bills beat Patriots
- Jaguars beat Jets
- Texans beat Cardinals
That combination of outcomes would close every remaining playoff door available to Kansas City. But even if the Chiefs dodge that exact combination, they’d mostly just be alive on paper, but functionally done for.
NFL.com projects that the Chiefs’ postseason chances would fall from 12% to microscopic levels, and that’s before factoring in the tiebreakers they are losing across the AFC.
Patrick Mahomes:
— BBQ Chiefs (@BBQChiefs) December 10, 2025
"I always want to win. I don't know what the percentages are, but I know they're not high. I think it'd be special to get into the playoffs and make a run." pic.twitter.com/VTzivVdUpX
A victory over the Chargers would offer only a small lifeline. According to projections:
- A Chiefs win bumps their playoff odds to just 19%
That’s hardly reassuring, especially with games against contenders still ahead and the AFC Wild Card race packed with teams holding nine or ten wins.
Why Week 15 is such a turning point
This isn’t simply another late-season must-win for the Chiefs. It’s a convergence of everything that has gone wrong for them this season.
- An uncharacteristically inconsistent offense
- A defense that has spent too much time on the field
- A 6–7 record that has stripped away all margin for error
- A Chargers team that already beat them head-to-head in Week 1, and can take the tiebreaker with a sweep
Add in the fact that the Chargers’ playoff odds would jump to 93% with a win, and the entire AFC West dynamic shifts sharply against Kansas City.
Other AFC games matter, but only a little
Several Week 15 games carry implications for the Chiefs, such as:
- Bills vs. Patriots (A Buffalo win hurts KC’s Wild Card chances)
- Jaguars vs. Colts
- Texans vs. anyone
- Broncos vs. Packers (Denver is pulling away in the AFC West race)
But again, the Chiefs’ biggest problem is not what other teams do. It’s their own record. Even if the “elimination scenario” doesn’t fully trigger this week, the AFC standings leave them very little room to climb back in.
IF
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) December 10, 2025
⚫️ Chiefs win out (LAC, TEN, DEN, LV)
⚫️ Colts lose at least 2 of their final 4 (SEA, SF, JAX, HOU)
⚫️ Chargers lose at least 3 of their final 4 (KC, DAL, HOU, DEN)
The Chiefs can make the playoffs pic.twitter.com/cW5JqucdoU
The Chiefs have dominated the AFC for nearly a decade, so this is a shocking turn of events. But even if the Chiefs deliver their best performance of the season on Sunday, the playoff door may slam shut before December ends.
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