Are the Cowboys eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to the Vikings in Week 15?
With the Bucs’ loss this week giving Dallas a small boost, a defeat to Minnesota would still leave the Cowboys’ postseason hopes hanging by a thread.
The Dallas Cowboys (6–6–1) face a make-or-break Week 15 showdown against the Minnesota Vikings with their playoff hopes hanging by a thread. After the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost to the Atlanta Falcons and slipped behind the Carolina Panthers in the NFC South, Dallas sees a slight lift in position, yet the margin for error remains thin in the NFC wild-card and division races.
Good start to the weekend for the Dallas Cowboys!
— RJ Ochoa (@rjochoa) December 12, 2025
The Buccaneers losing was not *super* essential, but it helps keep the hope of a Wild Card spot all the more in play if the NFC East isn’t available.
Huzzah. pic.twitter.com/z0hZxaiPzo
But if the Cowboys lose to the Vikings on Sunday night, their chances of playing in January reduce from slim to even slimmer to none.
What a loss would do to Dallas’ playoff odds
Models from analysts tracking the NFC postseason picture show that a Cowboys loss would plummet their playoff probability to the low single digits, roughly around 2–3%.
That doesn’t mean they would be mathematically eliminated. There would remain a tiny set of complex scenarios in which Dallas could still squeak in. But the Cowboys would effectively be on life support. Here’s what they’d need:
- Win-out performance the rest of the way (including division games)
- Multiple losses by the Philadelphia Eagles, who currently lead the NFC East
- Help in the wild-card standings from several teams ahead of them
Most simulations do not project that combination happening, meaning a loss would be a de facto elimination in practical terms.
Tampa Bay’s setback against Atlanta moved the Bucs to 7–7 and into second place in the NFC South behind the Carolina Panthers. That drop helps Dallas in one respect: it shuffles the NFC standings slightly, improving the Cowboys’ relative position. But Dallas still sits well behind several other NFC teams in the playoff pecking order, and their path to the postseason still requires them to win multiple games, starting with Sunday’s matchup.
Dallas’ clearest route to the playoffs remains the NFC East. The Cowboys control their destiny only if they can climb past the Eagles, who currently sit ahead in the division standings. The Eagles’ struggles this season have made the division race more intriguing, but a Cowboys loss on Sunday would strengthen Philadelphia’s edge and make Dallas’ uphill climb steeper than ever.
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