Jaguars vs Chiefs NFL Divisional Round: QB matchup | Trevor Lawrence vs Patrick Mahomes

The No. 4 Jacksonville Jaguars are heading to Kansas City to take on the top seed Chiefs in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs this Saturday at Arrowhead Stadium. These two teams had two different paths to the playoffs, but they both have a lot of talent, especially at quarterback.

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Patrick Mahomes was drafted in the 2017 NFL Draft and has already more than established himself at the professional level with two Super Bowl appearances (2018, 2019), one Super Bowl win (2018), Super Bowl MVP (2018), NFL MVP (2018), five Pro Bowl appearances (2018-2022), two AFC championships (2019, 2020), and NFL Offensive Player of the Year. Trevor Lawrence is in just his second season in the NFL, but he’s on a path that doesn’t look too different to Mahomes’ path to greatness.

Patrick Mahomes vs Trevor Lawrence: How do they compare?

Trevor Lawrence was the best quarterback in the country when he was in both high school and at Clemson University and he was drafted no. 1 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Though Patrick Mahomes played well for Texas Tech, he was drafted no. 10 overall in 2017, behind Steelers current backup quarterback Mitchell Turbisky. Yet he quickly became the best passer in the league in his second year, throwing 50 touchdown passes and winning NFL MVP.

Lawrence had the unfortunate luck of playing under Urban Meyer his first year in the league, a coach who was one and done (not even - he was fired before the season had even ended) and did him no favors. Since Super Bowl-winning Doug Pederson took over, Lawrence has learned and improved by miles. On the other end, Mahomes was lucky to have started under head coach Andy Reid when he took her as starter in 2018, a coach who had led 13 teams to the playoffs.

Mahomes was also fortunate to have teammates like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, while Lawrence was working with players like Marvin Jones and James O’Shaughnessy. Changes were made in that regard for Lawrence this season as well, with Jaguars manager Trent Balk adding Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, plus Travis Ettienne making his debut, and Lawrence has had a breakout season. In 2022, Lawrence had a 66% completion rate, 4,113 yards passing, 25 total touchdowns, and eight interceptions. In comparison, he finished his rookie season with 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.

The Jaguars had a slow start to the season, going 3-7, but then Week 12 happened. After that, they won six of their last seven games to make it to the playoffs, then upset the Chargers 31-30 in the Wild Card Round in an epic comeback from a 27-point deficit. Lawrence played pretty terribly in the first half, throwing four interceptions, but he was also the reason they came back, throwing for four touchdowns in a near-perfect second half.

Since Week 12, Lawrence’s stats have been surprisingly similar to Mahomes’ stats. They are both 7-1 since then, Lawrence is completing 66% of his passes, Mahomes is completing 67%, and Lawrence is at 7.3 yards per attempt while Mahomes is at 8.2. In that time, Lawrence has thrown 16 touchdowns to six interceptions and Mahomes has thrown 16 touchdowns to five interceptions.

Mahomes, of course, is a much more established quarterback with lots of experience under his belt and is himself familiar with comeback wins (Super Bowl LIV, anyone?). He’s the touchdown leader and the favorite to win the NFL MVP for the second time this season. He finished the season with 41 touchdown passes to 12 interceptions and had 1,110 more yards passing than Lawrence.

The two have met just once before, earlier this season, and Mahomes bested Lawrence, finishing 26 of 35 for 331 yards and four touchdowns plus and one interception, seven carries for 39 yards, and no sacks in their 27-17 win. Lawrence was 29 of 40 for 259 yards and two touchdowns and no interceptions and 26 yards rushing, but was sacked five times.

Mahomes and the Chiefs are the favorites to win this matchup, but the Jaguars and Lawrence proved that they’re capable of making big plays and big wins, so anything could happen.