NFL Playoff picture after Week 16: Updated seeds, clinched teams and who’s still alive

At the conclusion of Monday Night Football in Week 16, the NFL Playoff picture became even clearer. Eight total teams clinched spots in the postseason this week, and San Francisco’s blowout win over the Colts on Monday night didn’t just help the 49ers’ seeding. It clinched playoff spots for the Jaguars, Chargers and Bills, while pushing the Colts to the brink of elimination.

With Week 17 approaching, most playoff races are now about seeding and home-field advantage, but a few divisions, particularly the NFC South and AFC South, remain very much undecided.

NFL Playoff picture after Week 16

With just two weeks remaining in the regular season, 10 teams have now clinched playoff spots - 5 from each conference - while a small handful remain alive on the bubble. Two spots are up for grabs in the AFC and two in the NFC. Here’s the full postseason picture as it stands following the conclusion of Week 16.

AFC PLAYOFF RACE

Clinched a Playoff Spot (5 teams):

Two AFC playoff berths are still available

1. Denver Broncos - 12–3, 1st AFC West
2. New England Patriots - 12–3, 1st AFC East
3. Jacksonville Jaguars - 11–4, 1st AFC South
4. Los Angeles Chargers - 11–4, 2nd AFC West
5. Buffalo Bills - 11–4, 2nd AFC East

In the hunt (would qualify if season ended today):

• Pittsburgh Steelers - 9–6, 1st AFC North (Playoff probability: 91%)
• Houston Texans - 10–5, 2nd AFC South (Playoff probability: 97%)

On the bubble (outside the field, still alive)

• Indianapolis Colts - 8–7, 3rd AFC South (Playoff probability: 3%)
• Baltimore Ravens - 7–8, 2nd AFC North (Playoff probability: 9%)

Eliminated from AFC Playoff contention:

• Kansas City Chiefs (6–9)
• Miami Dolphins (6–9)
• Cincinnati Bengals (5–10)
• New York Jets (3–12)
• Tennessee Titans (3–12)
• Cleveland Browns (3–12)
• Las Vegas Raiders (2–13)

NFC PLAYOFF RACE

Clinched a Playoff Spot (5 teams):

Two NFC playoff berths are still available

1. Seattle Seahawks - 12–3, 1st NFC West
2. Chicago Bears - 11–4, 1st NFC North
3. Philadelphia Eagles - 10–5, 1st NFC East
4. San Francisco 49ers - 11–4, 2nd NFC West
5. Los Angeles Rams - 11–4, 3rd NFC West

In the hunt (would qualify if season ended today)

• Green Bay Packers - 9–5–1, 2nd NFC North (Playoff probability: 93%)
• Carolina Panthers - 8–7, 1st NFC South (Playoff probability: 43%)

On the bubble (outside the field, still alive)

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7–8, 2nd NFC South (Playoff probability: 57%)
• Detroit Lions - 8–7, 3rd NFC North (Playoff probability: 7%)

Eliminated from NFC Playoff contention:

• Minnesota Vikings (7–8)
• Dallas Cowboys (6–8–1)
• Atlanta Falcons (6–9)
• New Orleans Saints (5–10)
• Washington Commanders (4–11)
• Arizona Cardinals (3–12)
• New York Giants (2–13)

Playoff Clinching Scenarios

Teams still fighting for the final two spots in each conference

Pittsburgh Steelers (9–6)

• Clinch a playoff spot with:
  • One win in their final two games OR
  • A loss by the Colts or Ravens

Houston Texans (10–5)

• Clinch a playoff spot with:
  • One win in their final two games OR
  • A Colts loss

Indianapolis Colts (8–7)

• Clinch a playoff spot with:
  • Wins over the Jaguars and Texans AND
  • A Texans loss to the Chargers
• Any additional Colts loss or Texans win would eliminate Indianapolis.

Baltimore Ravens (7–8)

• Clinch a playoff spot with:
  • Winning their final two games AND
  • Multiple losses from teams ahead of them (Steelers, Texans, Colts)

Green Bay Packers (9–5–1)

• Clinch a playoff spot with:
  • One win in their final two games OR
  • A Lions loss

Carolina Panthers (8–7)

• Clinch the NFC South with:
  • Two wins OR
  • One win plus a Buccaneers loss
• Carolina’s path is division-based; winning the South is their clearest route.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7–8)

• Clinch the NFC South with:
  • A win over the Panthers in the regular-season finale AND
  • At least one Panthers loss before or including that matchup

Detroit Lions (8–7)

• Clinch a playoff spot with:
  • Wins in their final two games AND
  • A Packers loss in one of their final two games

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