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NFL playoff scenarios: Which teams can clinch or be eliminated in Week 17?

The Chiefs officially clinched the top seed in the AFC with their win over the Steelers on Christmas Day. Here’s what else could happen in Week 17.

The Chiefs officially clinched the top seed in the AFC with their win over the Steelers on Christmas Day. Here’s what else could happen in Week 17.
Barry Reeger
Jennifer Bubel
Sports journalist who grew up in Dallas, TX. Lover of all things sports, she got her degree from Texas Tech University (Wreck ‘em Tech!) in 2011. Joined Diario AS USA in 2021 and now covers mostly American sports (primarily NFL, NBA, and MLB) as well as soccer from around the world.
Update:

Week 17 of the NFL regular season continues tonight with Thursday Night Football featuring the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears. After the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day, they are officially No. 1 in the AFC and will get the first-round bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs.

As the week continues, there are a few more teams that could still clinch either a playoff berth or a divisional crown, and the NFC No. 1 seed is also up for grabs for the Detroit Lions this week. With five postseason spots still available, let’s take a look at the playoff picture as it stands now and the teams that could clinch or be eliminated this week.

NFL Playoff Picture Week 17

*updated December 26

AFC

In the playoffs:

1. Kansas City Chiefs: 15-1 (clinched playoff berth, AFC West, and AFC top seed)
2. Buffalo Bills: 12-3 (clinched playoff berth and AFC East)
3. Baltimore Ravens: 11-5 (clinched playoff berth)
4. Houston Texans: 9-7 (clinched playoff berth and AFC South, locked into No. 4 AFC seed)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-6 (clinched playoff berth)

On the bubble:

6. Los Angeles Chargers: 9-6 
7. Denver Broncos: 9-6

In the hunt:

8. Indianapolis Colts: 7-8
9. Miami Dolphins: 7-8
10. Cincinnati Bengals: 7-8

Eliminated:

  • New York Jets: 4-11

  • Cleveland Browns: 3-12

  • Jacksonville Jaguars: 3-12

  • Tennessee Titans: 3-12

  • Las Vegas Raiders: 3-12

  • New England Patriots: 3-12

NFC

In the playoffs:

1. Detroit Lions: 13-2 (clinched playoff berth)
2. Philadelphia Eagles: 12-3 (clinched playoff berth)
5. Minnesota Vikings: 13-2 (clinched playoff berth) 
6. Green Bay Packers: 11-4 (clinched playoff berth)

On the bubble:

3. Los Angeles Rams: 9-6 
4. Atlanta Falcons: 8-7
7. Washington Commanders: 10-5

In the hunt:

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-7
9. Seattle Seahawks: 8-7

Eliminated:

  • Dallas Cowboys: 7-8

  • Arizona Cardinals: 7-8

  • San Francisco 49ers: 6-9

  • New Orleans Saints: 5-10

  • Chicago Bears: 4-11

  • Carolina Panthers: 4-11

  • New York Giants: 2-13

NFL Week 17 playoff clinching scenarios

There are five playoff spots up for grabs - two in the AFC and three in the NFC. In Week 17, there are three teams that have the opportunity to clinch their spot in the playoffs - the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, and Washington Commanders. Here’s how.

How the Denver Broncos (AFC) can clinch a playoff berth in Week 17:

  • Win or tie (vs Cincinnati Bengals)

How the Los Angeles Chargers (AFC) can clinch a playoff berth in Week 17:

  • Win or tie (vs New England Patriots)
  • Miami Dolphins loss or tie (vs Cleveland Browns) AND Indianapolis Colts loss or tie (vs New York Giants)

How the Washington Commanders (NFC) can clinch a playoff berth in Week 17:

  • Win or tie (vs Atlanta Falcons)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss or tie (vs Carolina Panthers)

Other clinching scenarios in Week 17:

The Detroit Lions can clinch both the NFC North division and the NFC No. 1 seed (plus first-round bye and home-field advantage), and the Atlanta Falcons, Philadelphia Eagles, and Los Angeles Rams could all clinch their respective divisions this week.

How the Detroit Lions can clinch the NFC North AND NFC No. 1 seed in Week 17:

  • Win (vs San Francisco 49ers) AND Minnesota Vikings loss (vs Green Bay Packers)

How the Atlanta Falcons can clinch the NFC South in Week 17:

  • Win (vs Washington Commanders) AND Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss (vs Carolina Panthers)

How the Philadelphia Eagles can clinch the NFC East in Week 17:

  • Win or tie (vs Cowboys)
  • Washington Commanders loss or tie (vs Atlanta Falcons)

How the Los Angeles Rams can clinch the NFC West in Week 17:

  • Win (vs Arizona Cardinals) AND Seattle Seahawks loss or tie (vs Chicago Bears)
  • Win while clinching strength of victory tiebreaker over Seattle Seahawks
  • Tie (vs Arizona Cardinals) AND Seattle Seahawks loss or tie (vs Chicago Bears)

NFL Week 17 playoff elimination scenarios

On the other hand, there are five NFL teams that could be eliminated this week - the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Seattle Seahawks, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, and Cincinnati Bengals.

How the Tampa Buccaneers (NFC) can be eliminated in Week 17:

  • Loss (vs Carolina Panthers) AND Atlanta Falcons win (vs Washington Commanders)

How the Seattle Seahawks (NFC) can be eliminated in Week 17:

  • Loss (vs Chicago Bears) AND Los Angeles Rams win or tie (vs Arizona Cardinals)
  • Tie (vs Chicago Bears) AND Los Angeles Rams win (vs Arizona Cardinals)
  • Los Angeles Rams win (vs Arizona Cardinals) AND any combination of at least four wins by the Washington Commanders, Minnesota Vikings, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns

How the Indianapolis Colts (AFC) can be eliminated in Week 17:

  • Loss or tie (vs New York Giants)
  • Los Angeles Chargers win or tie (vs New England Patriots) AND Denver Broncos win or tie (vs Cincinnati Bengals)

How the Miami Dolphins (AFC) can be eliminated in Week 17:

  • Loss or tie (vs Cleveland Browns)
  • Los Angeles Chargers win or tie (vs New England Patriots) AND Denver Broncos win or tie (vs Cincinnati Bengals)

How the Cincinnati Bengals (AFC) can be eliminated in Week 17:

  • Loss or tie (vs Denver Broncos)
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