What do the Buccaneers need to make the playoffs in Week 18? Tampa Bay’s chances to get the remaining NFC spot

As the 2025 NFL regular season hurtles towards its concluding week, one of the most bewildering division races in recent memory is unfolding in the NFC South.

Week 18 promises drama that hinges as much on mental maths as it does on wins and losses.

We can get into nitty-gritty nerd levels of detail, but for those with TikTok brain-rot, here’s the simple picture entering this week:

Carolina (8-8) and Tampa Bay (7-9) would effectively meet in a winner-takes-all battle for the NFC South at Raymond James Stadium. A Panthers victory would give them their first division title since 2015 and a playoff berth; a Bucs win was expected to secure another NFC South crown for Tampa Bay.

How can the Buccaneers qualify for the playoffs?

But sport is not played on paper, and everything I just said went into the bin at the last minute in Week 17, when the Falcons, long gone from playoff contention, pulled off a stunning upset to the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night. That result sent the spreadsheet nerds into overdrive as they scrambled to work out the new final week scenarios.

Now the dynamics are far trickier. If Carolina beat the Bucs, the Panthers will clinch the division outright.

But even if the Buccaneers win on Saturday, their fate isn’t sealed: they must then hope for a Saints victory over the Falcons on Sunday to claim the division via tiebreakers. Should Atlanta beat New Orleans, all three teams would finish 8-9, and Carolina would win the tiebreaker thanks to a superior head-to-head record against both Tampa Bay and the Falcons.

Such a strange situation has produced the rare spectacle of two teams that are already eliminated potentially deciding a division title. In this three-way tiebreaker scenario, Carolina’s sweep of Atlanta plus the strong record against the other team give them the edge, even if they lose their own game.

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As for the Buccaneers, who have lost seven of their last eight games after a promising start, their path to the playoffs is thinner than a samurai’s sushi knife. A win over the Panthers only keeps their hopes alive; they must then watch Sunday’s result unfold and pray the Falcons fluff their feathers.

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