Men’s Olympic basketball semifinal preview: France vs. Germany, Serbia vs. USA

The Semifinals are all set for Thursday from Paris and what a couple matches we have in store to determine who will be making the gold medal match later on this week. Team USA headlines the four teams that are still alive, and it will be up to either France, Serbia or Germany to end the American’s reign of dominance in the Olympics.

USA vs. the world

Team USA have won four straight gold medals and have a team that was built to not just bring a fifth straight gold back to basketball’s home, but to send a message to the world that the United States is still the top dog when it comes to international basketball.

Last year that wasn’t the case. Last year the United States were bounced from the World Cup semifinals to a Canadian team that eventually lost to Germany in the final. That induced a response from the best American players in the NBA to form a super team and show the rest of the world that the United States is still the supreme power when it comes to basketball.

Last year’s World Cup Champions Germany are in the semifinals, hoping to bring the country the second major international basketball trophy in back to back years. The host nation is back in the semis for a second straight Olympics and Serbia is looking to avenge their loss to the US in the gold medal match back in the 2016 Olympics from Rio de Janeiro.

Germany vs. France

Germany’s sudden explosion on the international basketball scene has come out of nowhere. This is their 6th Olympic campaign, but they have never been close to the semifinals. Gordon Herbert has this team running like a well oiled machine. Their offensive sets are crisp and efficient and their defense is disciplined and almost robotic. They contained Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece while chipping away at an early double digit deficit to come back and tie their quarterfinal game at halftime. Franz Wagner carried the load, scoring 18 points and while Dennis Schroder had 13 and 8 assists.

France might have had the home crowd backing them, but they were the heavy underdogs against a Canada team that might be the most loaded roster behind Team USA. It was supposed to be France’s giant front court against the stacked back court of Canada. In the end it wasn’t the combined 14 feet of front court made up by Victory Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert. It was the back court duo of Guershon Yabusele and Isiah Corinier who combined for 44 of France’s 82 points. That was their weak spot coming into the tournament. Everyone knew Wembanyama and Gobert would dominate down low, but what would happen if they had an off night? Wemby went 2/10 from the field and Gobert played just three minutes against Canada, but the guys on the perimeter did enough to advance France to the semis to set up a rematch of the group stage game played only a week ago.

Last week these two team met in Lille for the second of three Group Stage games. France came out ice cold against the Germans scoring just 27 points in the first two quarters. They trailed by 21 points at halftime and by the time they started to knock down shots, it was too late. Franz Wagner had a personal Olympic high 26 points while Schroder dished 9 assists while Wemby was the top scorer for France with 14.

Prediction: France will have plenty of support in Paris and that will keep them in the game, but Germany is a more complete team, a deeper team and a team that has shown they can win big, important games. I’m taking Germany to win 86-79.

Serbia vs. USA

Team USA had one of the easier matchups of the quarterfinal considering their dominance during Group Stages. They were the top seed which would mean they would take on the weaker of the two third place teams that advanced to the quarterfinals. They came out on fire against Brazil and didn’t slow down for the rest of the 40 minutes. The game was never in question as Devin Booker came out and set the tone early one with a couple three pointers. Joel Embiid followed suit hitting three triples in the first half as the United States added to their double digit lead. LeBron James and Steph Curry had the luxury of sitting on the bench for the majority of the second half as Kevin Durant became the all-time leading Olympic scorer in USA history, surpassing Lisa Leslie. It was breezy game for Team USA who got a chance to rest their starters after watching their semifinal opponents Serbia go to overtime earlier in the day.

Nikola Jokic and Serbia came out of the gate flat and nearly payed a heavy price in the quarterfinal game against Australia. They went down 24 points early in the second quarter and had to claw their way back into the game. Jokic led the way with 21 points, 14 rebonds and 8 assists, but he needed some help to make up the massive deficit. Bogdan Bogdanovic had 17 points and Vasilije Micic had 14 points and 6 assists off the bench but that wasn’t enough to win the game in 40 minutes. They pushed the Boomers to overtime closed out Australia in the final five minutes to advance to the semifinal where they will meet Team USA for the third time in a matter of a few weeks.

These two teams met in the pre-Olympic exhibition tour before meeting in the first round of group stage games. Team USA won each of those games by 26 points, and never really showed any signs of struggle against Nikola Jokic and Serbia. Steph Curry went wild in the exhibition game dropping 18 of his 24 points in the first half, and Kevin Durant had 21 first half points in his first action with this Team USA in the Olympic opener. Jokic is averaging 18 and 8 in two games against the Americans, but he’ll have to be much better on Thursday.

Prediction: Team USA has yet to sweat in their Olympic campaign. This might be their toughest challenge of all, but I am still seeing a comfortable win for Steve Kerr’s side. Team USA cruise in to the gold medal match 116-84.