Carlos Alcaraz on the brink of winning his race with Jannik Sinner

Carlos Alcaraz is on the verge of ending the season ranked No. 1 in the world. The 22-year-old Spaniard, who already finished 2022 on top of the ATP ranking, is now within reach of doing it again after Jannik Sinner was forced to withdraw from the Shanghai Masters in the third round.

Sinner setback boosts Alcaraz

Sinner, ranked No. 2 in the world, pulled out of his match against Tallon Griekspoor after suffering severe cramps. That retirement hands Alcaraz an even stronger grip on the top spot despite not competing in Shanghai himself. Only a late collapse could deny him from closing out 2025 as the year-end No. 1.

Although it’s Monday, the official rankings will not be updated until the Shanghai tournament wraps up. When they do, Alcaraz is projected to retain 11,340 points after dropping just 200 from last year’s quarterfinal finish. Sinner, who won the title in Shanghai in 2024, loses 950 points from his total, leaving him with exactly 10,000. That puts him 1,340 points behind Alcaraz.

What comes next for Alcaraz and Sinner

Looking ahead, Alcaraz has a clear path to seal the year-end top spot. Both players are set to appear at the Six Kings Slam exhibition in mid-October, but no ranking points will be awarded there.

Sinner is entered in the ATP 500 event in Vienna later in October, where he could cut 500 points off Alcaraz’s lead if he wins the title. Alcaraz, however, is not scheduled to play any smaller tournaments before the season ends.

The next real showdown could come at the Paris Masters, where Sinner has no points to defend after skipping the event last year. Alcaraz, by contrast, has just 100 points at stake after falling in the round of 16 in 2024. A strong performance there could all but lock up the No. 1 ranking for the Spaniard.

The finish line in Turin

If not in Paris, Alcaraz can seal the deal at the ATP Finals in Turin in November. That’s where Sinner faces the biggest challenge: he could drop the 1,500 points he earned by winning the event last year. Alcaraz only has 200 to defend after falling in the group stage.

Barring a major stumble by Alcaraz combined with a near-perfect finish from Sinner, the Spaniard looks destined to lift the year-end No. 1 trophy for the second time in his career.

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