Big Data gives Real Madrid little chance of success
Opta’s supercomputer has Barcelona as the Champions League favourites and gives Real Madrid little chance of winning.
The Champions League round of 16 has concluded, and Opta’s supercomputer has recalculated its predictions for the coveted title. Following a round in which four teams that had to compete in the play-offs—Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, and PSG—secured qualification, the predictor has reassessed the situation.
With Liverpool, previously a top contender, eliminated after Luis Enrique’s team triumphed in a penalty shootout at Anfield, Barcelona has emerged as the new favorite. Previously ranked second before the round of 16, Barcelona now tops the list.
According to the supercomputer, Hansi Flick’s side has a 20.4% chance of winning the title in Munich—just one point higher than PSG’s 19.3%. Notably, PSG has made a significant leap in the rankings since the round of 16, moving from seventh place to second after eliminating Liverpool.
Arsenal and Inter Milan are projected to complete the Champions League semi-finals, with respective chances of 16.8% and 16.4%, according to Big Data. These predictions align with those made before the round of 16, indicating that both Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are expected to be eliminated in the quarter-finals.
Opta’s supercomputer gives Carlo Ancelotti’s team just a 13.6% chance of winning the tournament and a 47.2% chance of eliminating Arsenal in the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, Bayern Munich has only a 9.7% chance of lifting the coveted trophy and a 42.7% chance of reaching the semi-finals.
The supercomputer model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw, or loss) by analyzing betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings, which are based on the teams’ historical and recent performances. The entire competition is simulated 10,000 times to generate a final projection for each team.
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