Clausura 2023: Toluca’s options of qualifying

The Red Devils of Toluca have been one of the protagonists of the Liga MX Clausura 2023. Led by Ignacio Ambriz, the team has already secured its place in the playoffs, but the plan is to ensure they finish exactly where they are now - as one the top four teams who will directly qualify for the quarterfinals.

That shouldn’t be too complicated a task. Toluca close the regular campaign at their Nemesio Diez stadium, against one of the weakest sides in the category. Necaxa are second from bottom in the table and are already eliminated from the race to make the playoffs. The visitors, whose last win was over a month ago, should’t pose much of a problem for the the Red Devils.

Liga MX top positions going into Matchday 17

The results of this weekend’s matchday 17 games will define Toluca’s final position in the table. As it stands, they are fourth in the standings and could end up anywhere between third and sixth - let’s take a look at the possible outcomes:

Key matches

Scenario 1: Toluca beat Necaxa

Deportivo Toluca has the future in its hands. If they beat Los Rayos at the Nemesio Diez would see them finish the tournament in fourth place at least, and would guarantee direct passage to the quarter finals. There is a chance they could even finish in third place in the final standings - for that to happen, they would need to win their match and for Chivas to draw or lose against Mazatlán.

Basically, a win will be enough - as with 32 points, neither Pachuca (fifth on 28 points, ) nor León (sixth on 27) would be able to catch them.

Scenario 2: Toluca draw with Necaxa

A draw would leave Los Diablos Rojos on 30 points. That figure might still be enough to book a direct ticket to the Liguilla, but they would no longer depend on themselves as Pachuca are only one behind behind going into the last game. If Toluca draw, Nacho Ambriz’s team would also need Pachuca to draw or lose on their visit to Querétaro.

However, if Pachuca beat Querétaro, and Toluca are held at Nemesio Diez, the team would drop down a place to 5th, with which they would enter the playoffs, facing the team that finishes 12th in the final standings.

Scenario 3: Toluca lose to Necaxa

Even losing against Los Rayos, Toluca can still finish fourth - but they would need both Pachuca and León to drop points in their respective matches (a draw or defeat versus Querétaro and Tigres).

If Toluca lose and Pachuca beat Querétaro, Pachuca would finish fourth and Toluca, fifth.

If If Toluca lose and the Pachuca vs Querétaro ends in a draw, Toluca would finish level on 29 points with Pachuca but remain fourth as they have a superior goal difference.

Another possible outcome is if both Toluca and Pachuca lose their matches, and León beat Tigres, Toluca would slip to sixth place. Plenty of variables to consider for Nacho Ambriz’s team as the regular phase is concluded this weekend.