Ecuador vs Senegal odds and predictions: Who is the favorite in the World Cup 2022 game?

We look set to be in for an exciting finale to World Cup Group A as Ecuador face off against Senegal in a winner-takes-all clash at Khalifa International Stadium in Al Rayyan. Both teams know that they will qualify for the knockout stages should they collect all three points, although La Tri have the added advantage of knowing that a draw will also see them through to the last 16.

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Enner Valencia likely to play some part against Senegal

One of the key questions surrounding the match has been around the fitness of Ecuador captain Enner Valencia, who has scored all three of his nation’s goals at this tournament and each of their last six World Cup goals all told. Valencia’s double in the opening game against hosts Qatar got the South Americans off on the right foot, while his equaliser early in the second half against the Netherlands earned a draw against a considerably tougher opponent, which gives Ecuador the edge going into matchday three and will have given them further confidence.

Valencia was substituted late on in both games because of a knee issue and had been a major doubt to face Senegal, although reports have claimed that team doctors have given him the all-clear to play for an hour.

Senegal almost certainly need to beat Ecuador to qualify

Senegal, playing in the World Cup for just the third time, reached the quarter-finals on their debut in 2002 and will almost certainly have to win against Ecuador to finish in the top two. Three points will definitely be enough and a draw will suffice if the Netherlands lose to Qatar by a three-goal margin, which seems unlikely given what we’ve seen so far.

A draw coupled with a two-goal loss for the Dutch could also be sufficient depending on the scores in those matches; were the teams to finish level on goal difference, goals scored would be the next tie-breaker and if the nations were to have scored and conceded the same number of goals across the three matches, Oranje would qualify having won the match between the teams on matchday one.

More: What happens if teams end up with the same number of points in the World Cup group stage?

Given that Senegal, unlike Ecuador, didn’t impress against the Dutch before seeing off a poor Qatar side, they will be less fancied to secure the win that they almost certainly need to progress, especially without star attacker Sadio Mané, who misses the tournament through injury.

Ecuador vs Senegal: match odds

Ecuador are favorites to win Sunday’s clash, with a victory priced by most bookmakers at around +140.

A Senegal win is priced at around +210 to +220, with similar odds on a draw.

Ecuador vs Senegal: prediction

Senegal go into the game knowing that they will almost certainly have to win if they are to finish in the top two. With that in mind, they will have to attack an Ecuador defence that has been extremely resolute of late, with the goal they let in against the Netherlands ending a run of six games without conceding. Valencia looking likely to be available should give La Tri the boost they need to see it over the line.

Prediction: Ecuador 1-0 Senegal