Real Madrid ready for Anfiel-D-Day

Seeing is believing. Just when circumstances had Madrid under the most pressure, they’ve reached their best level of the season. It’s too early to pop the champagne, but enough to consider the trauma of the 0-4 Clásico loss to Barcelona a thing of the past. The team has won its last two league matches with authority, defeating Osasuna and Leganés, scoring seven goals and conceding none. They’ve also gathered a good number of positives that will be crucial for what’s ahead. Because this Wednesday, November 27, Madrid faces its first ‘final’ of the season.

It’s early, but circumstances dictate: Madrid has earned just six points out of a possible 12 in the Champions League. They are currently 18th out of 32, and the goal of qualifying directly for the round of 16 – by finishing between first and eighth after eight matches – feels distant. It’s achievable, but to get there, they need to win their first European away match in the competition, against Liverpool at Anfield. A victory against the Reds would bring that goal closer and, at the same time, solidify Madrid’s evident improvement.

The opponent is formidable: the only team in the Champions League with a perfect record so far and a standout leader in the Premier League, sitting eight points ahead of Manchester City. Fortunately for Madrid, everything seems to be going their way as they prepare to face Salah, Díaz, Gakpo, and co.

Real Madrid’s defensive solidity returning

When it comes to defense, Madrid could be said to have run out of luck. Although, to some extent, they brought it on themselves by starting the season with just two healthy and available center-backs (not counting Vallejo). On top of that, two ACL injuries in the backline – Carvajal and Militao – have left Madrid’s defense in shambles.

At the moment, Ancelotti has no right-back and only has Rüdiger as a center-back, which has forced him to rely on Asencio from Castilla. The academy player has benefited from the team’s two most fluid performances in possession this season, which has made his job easier. That said, the challenges he has faced, he has more than overcome.

Madrid has now gone two matches without conceding a goal, something they had only achieved once this season, back in mid-September against Betis and Real Sociedad. But that was a different story, largely down to chance: at Anoeta, they survived three shots hitting the woodwork. This time, however, the improvement is far more structural than circumstantial. Ancelotti emphasized this in Butarque: “The positive signs from Osasuna have been confirmed. We’re more compact and focused.”

Madrid welcome return of Courtois

Much of this defensive solidity can be attributed to Courtois, who returned against Leganés after suffering his second muscle injury of the season – a recurring issue for a player who last year endured a cruciate ligament and meniscus tear. He is now paying for that prolonged inactivity in small, uncomfortable installments.

The team’s defensive improvement is undeniable: they did not face a single shot on target against either Osasuna or Leganés. But beyond that, the Belgian’s presence adds another, and not insignificant, layer of intimidation for opponents. Liverpool knows this all too well: in the 2022 Champions League final in Paris, he was Madrid’s MVP on their way to their 14th title, making nine saves against the Reds, several of them truly spectacular.

The absence of the Belgian made way for Lunin, who, despite recently renewing his contract, has not shown the same reliability he demonstrated last season when he displaced Kepa. He has played five matches, with Madrid losing three of them and conceding eight goals, including the four against Barça in the Clásico. With Courtois back between the posts, the outlook changes for Madrid, as does the mood of the crowd at Anfield—undoubtedly for the better.

The Vini-Mbappé connection

Against Leganés, Ancelotti finally implemented the tactical change so many had been calling for: Mbappé on the left and Vinicius up front. Not because it’s guaranteed to work better, but at least to try something different. As the saying goes, change something to change everything. While there were no major breakthroughs, there was a clear sense that Mbappé is more involved on the left, while Vinicius seems better suited as a center forward, showing more tools for the role.

The Brazilian’s form was never in question before Butarque, and it remains solid afterward. He recently delivered two hat tricks, against Dortmund and Osasuna, and in Leganés, he provided an assist for the Frenchman to break his scoring drought. Mbappé had gone four matches without scoring and had managed just one goal in his previous seven appearances. The position, Kylian insists, is not an issue: “It’s the story of my career: playing on the right, through the middle, on the left… I just want to play and score lots of goals.”

Heading into Anfield, both players arrive with the boost of another successful connection and the certainty that Liverpool will offer spaces to exploit – whether it’s someone sprinting down the left or charging through the center. That said, Monday morning threw up some doubts over Vini’s fitness.

Bellingham finding his feet again

Jude Bellingham’s performance this season had left much to be desired. There’s an element of truth and a touch of fantasy in that assessment. The former is clear: the Englishman wasn’t at his sharpest, struggling with finishing and midfield duties, and Madrid felt his absence. The latter, however, isn’t on him: his 23 goals last season set expectations that are impossible to sustain indefinitely, creating a comparison no player in his position could realistically uphold.

That being the case, the fact that Bellingham hadn’t scored a single goal in his first 12 matches of the season seemed odd. That changed against Osasuna, where he was finally rewarded with his first goal of the campaign. He then went into the international break, shining in England’s two matches that secured their promotion to the top tier of the Nations League.

On his return, he found the net again, scoring a poacher’s goal off a rebound – just the kind he tallied in abundance last season. Bellingham has finally rediscovered himself, and that’s no small matter. Without Kroos’s control in midfield, Madrid needs his dynamism more than ever to break through difficult situations.

Madrid’s number 5 and a full-back

Without Tchouaméni, who is unlikely to make it to Liverpool – and even if he does, it wouldn’t be in peak condition – and without Lucas Vázquez, another player with slim chances of being available at Anfield, Ancelotti has had to improvise, with results that have turned out far better than expected.

In midfield, this isn’t entirely new: Camavinga already played as a ‘5’ in last season’s Champions League final against Dortmund and showed that, despite his instinct being more for carrying the ball than passing it, he can handle the role. His performance in Leganés was yet another example.

And in defense, a refined déjà vu: Valverde has already played as a full-back at Anfield, during the 2020-21 season with Zidane in the dugout, in the second leg of a quarterfinal played behind closed doors (during the height of covid-19). That day, the Uruguayan delivered a masterclass in defensive solidity against a Liverpool side needing to overturn a 3-1 deficit from the first leg in Valdebebas. In Leganés, he reprised that role and will do so again on Wednesday in England.

His performance in Butarque showed that, in addition to being an excellent defensive full-back, he can also contribute in attack. In fact, he scored the 0-2 from a free kick – an area he’s starting to excel in – and frequently made his way into the opposition’s box, even providing an unconverted assist to Brahim that could have made it 0-4. Ancelotti already knows he can rely on him for Anfield, and Valverde looks set to be a lock in the starting XI.

Madrid’s options on the bench

As a bonus, there are players waiting in the wings who are showing they can contribute more. Take Brahim, for example, who scored five goals during the international break with Morocco. His absence from the starting lineup against Leganés was surprising, though it’s widely seen as a sign he’ll start in the 4-3-3 formation against Liverpool. The brief time he spent on the field in Butarque was promising; he played a part in the 0-3 and came close to scoring his own goal.

However, there’s a challenge: Arda Güler. The Turkish midfielder started against Leganés and delivered an impressive performance, showcasing flashes of exceptional quality and a sharp attacking edge. He was denied a goal only by Dmitrovic’s commendable saves.

Despite this being just his fourth start of the season, Güler made a compelling case for more opportunities. Both he and Brahim are vying for a spot in the starting eleven against Liverpool, with the latter currently holding a slight advantage.

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