Supercomputer calculates points needed to qualify from the Champions League ‘league phase’

The Champions League returns this week with mouth-watering fixtures from across Europe. Liverpool host Real Madrid and Bayern Munich travel to Paris Saint-Germain, but what does it all mean?

The 2024/25 season is the first in Champions League history to utilise the ‘Swiss model’ format, with all teams competing in a single 36-team table. At the halfway stage Liverpool lead the way with four wins from four, but how many points do they need to book their place in the knockout rounds?

The top eight teams will earn a guaranteed spot in the Round of 16, while teams from ninth to 24th will go into a play-off round to decide the remaining eight place.

Ahead of the season the Opta supercomputer ran the numbers to calculate how many points are needed to qualify. After 50,000 simulations these were the findings...

How many points to finish top eight in the Champions League?

The top eight teams will go straight into the knockout rounds. Opta found that teams with 16 points progressed in 98% of simulations, the equivalent of five wins and draw.

Teams with 15 points finished in the top eight places in 73% of simulations, but those with 14 made it only 28% of the time. In other words, 15 points is the target for teams who expect to qualify automatically. With 12 points from four games, Liverpool need just one win from their remaining four fixtures to hit that mark.

How many points to finish top 24 in the Champions League?

The most fascinating part of the new UCL format is the scrap for places nine to 24. Half of all teams will be in these places, with the higher-placed teams taking on the lower-placed sides in the following play-off round. So, how many points are needed?

The Opta supercomputer found that teams with ten points from the league phase made it into the top 24 in 99% of simulations. The key cut-off point is nine points, where 69% of teams progressed. Those with eight points only made it in 16% of simulations.

If ten points is the figure that essentially guaranteed a spot in the top 24, there are five teams who can count on their European advantage continuing beyond the league phase. Liverpool (12 points) and Sporting CP, Monaco, Brest and Inter Milan (all 10 points) have all hit that mark.

Of course, all of these figures are just projections and don’t represent defined thresholds for qualification. As in-depth as Opta’s calculations are, the supercomputer had Liverpool finishing with the 12th-best record in the league phase. After their 100% start, Arne Slot’s side will be much higher in the final table.

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