The uncertainty haunting Real Madrid off the field ahead of European test

Preparing for a Champions League round of 16 without knowing whether your biggest star will be available – and virtually ruling out two others you had hoped to count on – is the reality facing Álvaro Arbeloa. Whenever he checks on the treatment room, the outlook remains murky.

In short: Jude Bellingham will not make it against Manchester City after his recovery slowed unexpectedly. Éder Militão will not be ready either, despite earlier optimism that he might beat the timeline. And Kylian Mbappé remains Kylian Mbappé – his availability will depend entirely on how he feels. Inside the club, they have not completely ruled out the possibility of him making the bench for the first leg, even if only to play a psychological role similar to the league-phase meeting against City, where his mere presence caused more concern than his realistic chances of stepping onto the field.

Mbappé is the great unknown in Madrid’s injury picture. He has been granted a rest period covering tonight’s game and Friday’s visit to Celta Vigo. What happens after that will hinge largely on the French forward himself. Arbeloa acknowledged as much on Saturday. “We’ll see day by day. Right now it’s better not to set deadlines,” he said. “We want him back at 100%, and when that happens, he’ll return.”

Only Mbappé can truly determine when that moment arrives. The decision rests with him – whether to take a cautious route or fast-forward his comeback. For now, he continues with conservative treatment on his knee, aiming to avoid even minor surgery. But choices are looming, including whether to take part in France’s high-profile friendly against Brazil on March 26 in Boston.

Bellingham, meanwhile, will not be joining England during the international break for friendlies against Uruguay and Japan. He suffered a tear in the semitendinosus muscle of his left leg against Rayo Vallecano on Feb. 1. Internally, the club estimated an absence of three to five weeks, with roughly a month seen as reasonable. That has not proved accurate.

He has just passed the one-month mark and is still only halfway through his recovery. He is not expected back until the final week of March or the first days of April. In total, the midfielder will likely miss between six and eight weeks. The current projection has him available for the first leg of a potential Champions League quarterfinal on April 7 – against Bayern Munich or Atalanta – should Madrid advance.

Militão’s slim chances

Militão had been viewed as the faint glimmer of light amid the uncertainty. In recent days he has trained intermittently with the group, appearing to move closer to the optimistic forecast of a three-and-a-half-month absence rather than the more cautious four months. But the club does not see him as fully ready for City. It would be too soon.

He is essentially ruled out, with his focus – like Bellingham’s – shifting toward a possible quarterfinal scenario. There remains a narrow window for the second leg against City on March 17, and that possibility carries weight given that when fit, the Brazilian has been an undisputed starter.

The medical staff have not completely closed that door, yet they are acutely aware of the demands of returning at the Etihad for a match of that magnitude. Though muscular, the injury was severe – a significant tear in the left biceps femoris with proximal tendon involvement – requiring meticulous rehabilitation. Specialists warn that such injuries carry a substantial risk, with data suggesting that around 30% of athletes who suffer them experience a hamstring relapse.

With Dean Huijsen back, and both Antonio Rüdiger and David Alaba currently in strong physical condition, caution is the guiding principle in Militão’s case.