Vinícius Real Madrid renewal conditioned by World Cup 2026

“Is Vinicius going to renew?” The question in the TVE interview catches Florentino Pérez by surprise, still in the middle of an election campaign. “Well, I don’t know. If you ask me for my opinion, I hope he stays. He is one of the best in the world.” The issue is still unresolved then, and 10 months have now passed since the Brazilian player and Real Madrid broke off negotiations over extending his deal, which expires in June 2027.

It was after the Club World Cup, with Xabi Alonso already appointed as coach, that everything was put on stand-by. An agreement had been close, but both sides agreed to talk again later … and nothing has happened since. Vinicius is seven months away from being able to negotiate with any club.

In other public appearances, Pérez has already suggested there is no rush with the Brazilian. Nothing indicates that his renewal will be completed before the World Cup, especially with the election process under way and so many operations still to carry out, including José Mourinho’s transfer requests from the club. And in that context, the World Cup has a direct impact on Vinicius’ situation.

How the World Cup could change Vini’s future

If he has a strong tournament and emerges strengthened, the player’s negotiating position with Madrid will grow – and, why not, his situation will also become very tempting, with only one year left on his contract, for any major club looking to sign him. If the World Cup does not go his way, Madrid will improve its position in renewal talks but, in return, the player’s value will fall if no agreement is ultimately reached and a sale has to be explored – perhaps as a way to finance the additions Vinicius needs. Perhaps it would be a good exit for both sides.

As time passes and the situation remains unresolved, Vinicius is increasingly gaining the upper hand. It is no longer far-fetched to think that, if he does not reach an agreement with Madrid over the money he wants to earn, he could choose to wait until the end of next season and leave as a free agent. Even so, that option is not being considered today by the player’s camp, which is clear that he wants to continue his career at Madrid. Likewise, Madrid, as Pérez has said, wants to renew him. The strange thing is that no agreement has yet been reached.

When negotiations broke down back in July, Vinicius had already lowered his initial demands considerably, which had been very high. The Brazilian had asked to earn close to $33 million per season. At that time he had been on the verge of winning the Ballon d’Or and had won The Best award. But before everything was put on stand-by, according to sources familiar with the negotiations, the player had lowered his demands much more than Madrid had raised its initial offer. The positions had narrowed so much that an agreement was almost imminent, taken for granted … but everything stopped. Since then, there have only been positive words from both sides, although negotiations still have to resume and there does not appear to be enough time before the World Cup.

The real figures in his contract

The next deal will be the third contract Vinicius signs with Real Madrid. The first was the one that tied him to the club when he was 17, and the second came when he renewed for the first time in 2022. When he renewed in 2022, he agreed to earn $82 million net over five seasons, until 2027. It was a progressive contract under which he received an average of $16.4 million net per season. Those $16.4 million per season now put him level with Kylian Mbappé’s salary, but the Frenchman received a significant signing bonus – reportedly $44 million – which can also be considered salary across the five years he signed for. That is the core of Vinicius’ demands: he wants to feel valued and earn at least as much as Mbappé.

Vinicius’ story in football is that of someone who has reached the top from the bottom through effort, dedication and constant work. When he signed his first contract with Madrid in 2017, he was just 17 – it took effect when he turned 18 – and was already a star in his country. At that point, his agent, Frederico Pena, agreed a progressive contract with Madrid. His salary was among the lowest in the squad in his first years, but when he renewed for the first time in 2022, he was already earning $5.1 million net per season. Now that he is on $16.4 million net, the final chapter of his relationship with Madrid is still to be written … and it appears it will come after the World Cup.

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