At one stage early in qualification for the 2026 World Cup, it looked as if Paraguay, the USMNT’s first opponents, were all set to miss a fifth successive tournament. But after a superb end to the campaign, the South Americans are setting their sights high in the United States, Mexico and Canada this summer.

“I think there’s an expectation to get out of the group because they traditionally have done,” Paraguayan soccer expert Ralph Hannah, who co-hosts the Guarani Vision podcast, tells AS USA. “I think definitely out of the group and I think the hope is at least to get to the last 16.”

It’s been quite the turnaround for La Albirroja, who quietly head into the World Cup as one of the tournament’s in-form teams, certainly when it comes to competitive games.

From World Cup strugglers to contenders

After almost two years in charge, former LA Galaxy manager Guillermo Barros Schelotto was sacked two games into qualifying. His replacement, Daniel Garnero, lasted only 10 months, with the duo combining for just six points from the first seven qualifiers.

Garnero was relieved of his duties after a (quite literally) pointless 2024 Copa América, in which the team lost all three of its group games in the United States.

Paraguay looked to be going nowhere fast until current head coach Gustavo Alfaro came along in August 2024. The experienced Argentine led Ecuador to the 2022 World Cup in Qatar and worked his magic once again with their CONMEBOL rivals.

Starting with a battling 0-0 draw away to Uruguay on Matchday 7 of 18 in South American qualifying, Paraguay under Alfaro took 22 points from their final 11 fixtures to end up in sixth place, the final qualifying spot. They were, however, just a point behind Ecuador, who finished second, and matched the 28 points earned by Colombia, Uruguay and Brazil.

Had Alfaro’s two-points-per-game average been extrapolated over the entire 18-game qualification campaign, Paraguay would have comfortably finished second on 36 points, only two behind World Cup holders Argentina. So how did he do it?

How Gustavo Alfaro transformed Paraguay

“Alfaro basically said, ‘We’re not going to play a very particular style. We’re going to be much more pragmatic. We’re going to get back to the Paraguayan DNA,’” explains Hannah.

“But at the same time, I think he just got the best players in their positions and was very big on the psychological part.

“His thought was, ‘Let’s get back to what we’re doing. Let’s do what’s worked for Paraguay before, which is, yes, being a bit more defensive. We’re going to play on emotion a bit more than, say, tactics. And ultimately, we’re just going to become very hard to beat at home.’”

If that was the plan, then it worked. After Alfaro took over, Paraguay won five of their final six home qualifiers, with victories over Brazil and Argentina the highlights. A goalless draw against Ecuador, with qualification already secured, was their only slip-up.

Although emotion and psychology have been key to the team’s vast improvement, tactics have clearly had a role to play, too.

“Garnero, the manager before, was always criticised for being too attacking and he didn’t have good cover in terms of his midfield anchorman,” says Hannah. “One of the shifts Alfaro made was bringing Andrés Cubas, who plays at Vancouver with Thomas Müller, into that role and he’s been key.

“Alfaro also started playing with one of his fullbacks who is really more of a center back. So Paraguay are able to shift to a defensive three. One fullback will push forward and then the other slots in. So the defense just became a bit more stable.”

What to expect from Paraguay at the World Cup

World Cup qualification for the first time since 2010 was rewarded in December’s draw with a place in Group D alongside the USMNT, who Paraguay face first on Friday, June 12, Australia and Türkiye, the artist formerly known as Turkey.

“I think on one side people are very happy that they avoided the big European team because the seeded team was the U.S.,” says Hannah. “I think the downside is that this group is very evenly matched. There’s not an obvious team that you could beat.”

If they want to get out of the group, the likelihood is that Paraguay will have to defeat at least one team. How might they go about it?

First things first, do not expect Paraguay to dominate the ball against the USMNT, or anyone else for that matter.

“They’re not going to try and have more possession than the other teams,” according to Hannah, who says Atlanta United winger Miguel Almirón will likely be the main threat on the counterattack. “They’re going to be content to hit teams on the break and play without the ball for much of the game, because that’s kind of their typical style under Alfaro.”

The weapons Paraguay will bring against the USMNT

As for goalscoring, there are two main threats for opponents to look out for.

“One strength, and it’s very much in fashion now, is set pieces,” Hannah explains. “That’s traditionally been a strength. I think Paraguay have opened the scoring at the World Cup with a header in their last four tournaments.

“Gustavo Gómez, the center back for Palmeiras and the captain, and Omar Alderete, who’s just come off a great season at Sunderland, are very dangerous at set pieces. Juan Cáceres, who’s playing in Russia at the moment, is very good in terms of delivery. Set pieces are definitely one angle.”

But Mauricio Pochettino’s team will not only have to be switched on inside its own penalty area, but outside it too.

“What we’ve really seen is a lot of goals from outside the box, which is quite interesting. Diego Gómez scored a goal against Brazil from outside the box, Julio Enciso is known for it after winning the Premier League Goal of the Season award when he was at Brighton. He scored a great one against Colombia and against Bolivia at the Olympics. There are those maverick moments, I suppose, along with set pieces.”

Where the USMNT could exploit Paraguay

On the flip side, the United States already have recent experience of beating Paraguay, running out 2-1 winners in a friendly in Philadelphia in November. In that game, some of the South Americans’ main weaknesses were exposed.

“We saw Paraguay struggle with bringing the ball out from the back when they had possession,” Hannah recalls. “They just couldn’t get through the press of the U.S. team, who are a bit more athletic and a bit better, especially under Pochettino, who’s happy to press higher, Bielsa-style.”

That has an additional knock-on effect further up the field.

“Julio Enciso is a great player, but he’s not going to run onto long balls. He needs the ball to feet and he wants to try and dribble through people. But how do you get the ball to him if you can’t get through the press?

“If we can’t really play through teams, we’re going to have to try and go more direct. And then we don’t have huge pace up front. So it’s a case of who do we use? We’re struggling to find who that player could be.

“So the weakness is how do we play through teams? They didn’t score many open-play goals in qualifying, so that was always the struggle.”

Paraguay’s sturdy defense saw them concede only 10 goals in 18 qualifiers, seven of which came in Alfaro’s 11 games in charge. Yet one major concern hangs over the backline.

“Their big question mark is goalkeepers,” Hannah warns. “They used Roberto ‘Gatito’ Fernández for much of the qualifiers, but he hasn’t played much at club level. He’s a bit older now.

“They’ve actually naturalized a player called Gastón Olveira, who’s Uruguayan and didn’t play any of the qualifiers because he wasn’t eligible. He’d just been in Paraguay long enough to qualify for citizenship. So he played two of the friendlies in March. He might end up being the starting goalkeeper. In terms of defense, the goalkeeper is the main question mark.”

Paraguay embraces World Cup dream again

After a 16-year World Cup absence, Paraguay are back and anticipation is high back home. Can the team make up for lost time?

“People don’t really care about how they got there,” Hannah explains. “They’re just excited. In the last friendly against Nicaragua, there were fireworks in the stadium before the game, there were people riding their horses alongside the bus to send them off.

“After 16 years, you’ve got 20-somethings that remember the 2010 World Cup, but they were too little to really enjoy it. Now they’re actually getting to live through it and you can see that there’s so much excitement around the tournament.

“People don’t care if they have to play an easy game in the last 32, they’ll take whatever they can to see Paraguay go as far as they possibly can.”

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