Spain or Argentina: Which team has VAR favored more during the 2026 World Cup?

Spain and Argentina meet in a high-quality World Cup final that could be decided by the smallest of mistakes. To avoid that, both teams will need to stay fully focused and ensure there are no controversial incidents that allow the officiating crew to tip the balance one way or the other.

Spain played its first two games with very little refereeing controversy. However, the game against Uruguay featured several contentious decisions. The referee let several yellow cards – and arguably even red cards – go unpunished for the Uruguayans, most notably when Nicolás de la Cruz kicked Nico Williams off the ball. Although Agustín Canobbio was eventually sent off in stoppage time, he arguably should have been dismissed much earlier. While referees in Spain’s subsequent games have made minor mistakes, none have generated significant controversy, largely because the VAR has not asked the on-field official to review or overturn any of those decisions.

Argentina, meanwhile, arrives at the final having faced constant criticism over alleged refereeing favoritism. Since the start of the tournament, there have been claims that FIFA wanted Lionel Messi in the final or that Argentina had been handed an easy path. The evidence, however, suggests otherwise.

According to data compiled by Archivo VAR, when it comes to decisions that genuinely change the outcome of games, Argentina has not been favored but rather disadvantaged. In smaller decisions – minor fouls or 50-50 challenges where a referee could reasonably award a free kick either way – there have been occasions when the calls appeared to lean slightly toward Argentina. In close situations, some referees may prefer not to invite controversy involving a heavyweight nation such as Argentina. Even so, several key decisions involving Argentina have stood out during this World Cup.

The only major decision that went Argentina’s way was Messi avoiding a red card against Algeria. His stamp on Aïssa Mandi, according to the letter of the Laws of the Game, warranted a straight red card. That was the only refereeing mistake that clearly benefited the Albiceleste.

There have been more controversial decisions that went against Argentina. First, Messi had a goal wrongly disallowed against Algeria after the semi-automated offside system selected the wrong frame, ruling out what should have been a legitimate goal. Second, the referee failed to award a penalty for a foul on Lautaro Martínez in the game against Austria before VAR corrected the mistake. Later, against Egypt, the referee allowed play to continue after a foul on Lisandro Martínez, a sequence that ended with Egypt scoring. VAR reviewed the incident and ultimately awarded the foul. Finally, in the game against Switzerland, Breel Embolo’s sending-off also stemmed from VAR intervention. The referee initially booked Leandro Paredes for what appeared to be a foul on the Swiss forward, but the review showed that Embolo had simulated the contact, resulting in his dismissal for a second yellow card.

In short, without VAR, Argentina would have been disadvantaged in three separate games. Based on the tournament’s decisive officiating moments, the claim that Argentina has been favored by Gianni Infantino does not stand up to scrutiny.

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