Spain or Argentina: Who had the toughest path to the 2026 World Cup final?
Spain and Argentina, the top two teams in the world ranking, battle it out to be crowned world champions - who had it harder getting to the final?

For the first time in World Cup history, the top four teams in the FIFA world ranking made it to the semifinals and on Sunday, the top two: Argentina and Spain, will battle it out to be crowned world champions.
After topping their respective groups, Argentina and Spain both completed their journey to the final unbeaten. But which one of them had the toughest route? And does it tell us anything about who is the stronger side? Let’s take a look.
#FIFAWorldCup Final state of mind 🏙️ pic.twitter.com/anJluCTyYw
— FIFA World Cup (@FIFAWorldCup) July 16, 2026
Spain and Argentina’s route to the final: the group stage
Argentina landed in a slightly tougher group when comparing the two solely on the average FIFA World Ranking of their opponents. Lionel Scaloni’s team kicked off their defense of the title in Group J alongside Austria: ranked 23rd, Algeria: ranked 29th and Jordan: ranked 73rd.
Spain meanwhile, began the tournament in Group H alongside Uruguay: ranked 16th, Saudi Arabia: ranked 61st and debutantes Cabo Verde: ranked 67th.
The Albiceleste breezed through the group phase winning all of their games while Spain suffered just one small blip, being held by newcomers Cabo Verde in their opening match.
🪩 Se gritó, se bailó, se celebró…
— Selección Española Masculina de Fútbol (@SEFutbol) July 14, 2026
¡Vente al vestuario de la Selección y saca los pasos prohibidos!#VamosEspaña | #CopaMundialFIFA pic.twitter.com/U2qtzlCLXA
The knockout round was much tougher for Spain
Spain’s route
After the group stage, the real test begins. The competition gets much harder and that was particularly true for Spain, whose opponents throughout the knockout round were much stronger - and not just on paper. Spain were pitted against three teams who were expected to go far - including the big favorites.
Luis de la Fuente’s team entered the Round of 32 facing Austria - the team who finished runners-up in Argentina’s group and occupying 23rd place in FIFA’s ranking. A 3-0 victory with goals from Mikel Oyarzabal and Pedro Porro saw La Roja advance.
19-year-old Pau Cubarsí 🌠#FIFAWorldCup pic.twitter.com/oFdvVEKse8
— FIFA World Cup (@FIFAWorldCup) July 17, 2026
In the Round of 16, Spain found themselves up against a Portugal side packed with stars such as Cristiano Ronaldo, Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, João Félix... - the current UEFA Nations League champions and seventh in the world ranking. Mikel Merino’s stoppage-time winner edged a closely-fought game to end Cristiano’s journey in his last World Cup.
That set up a quarter-final meeting with Belgium - another fancied team, just one place below Portugal in the FIFA ranking. At Sofi Stadium we witnessed another very close game where another late Merino strike was enough to see Spain through.
The semi-final promised to be by far the toughest test of the competition. France, who overtook Spain as the bookmakers’ favorites to lift the trophy, were the rivals in Arlington Texas. In the FIFA ranking, it was second versus third - the 2010 winners up against the runners-up four years ago in Qatar. In the end Spain showed their superiority, with Oyarzabal and Pedro Porro once again finding the net.
🏆 #FIFAWorldCup
— 🇦🇷 Selección Argentina ⭐⭐⭐ (@Argentina) July 12, 2026
🎶 Sólo lo impensado es imposible... pic.twitter.com/LGKhwm7GWh
Argentina’s route
Messi and Co. suffered to battle their way through the knockout phase - despite facing theoretically inferior opponents.
The round of 32 began against Cabo Verde - a team making their World Cup debut who scraped through Spain’s group and ranked 64th. The Africans gave the defending champions a rough ride in Miami with Argentina edging it 3-2 thanks to an own-goal in extra-time.
Next up were seven-time Africa Cup of Nations winners Egypt - 24th in the world ranking. Against Mohamed Salah and Co. Argentina were pushed all the way again, resolving a tightly-fought contest in stoppage-time courtesy of Enzo Fernández.
The quarter final saw Argentina take on Switzerland, several places down the ranking from them in 14th. It was a game overshadowed by controversy. The Swiss were enraged by a refereeing decision which left them with 10 men. To the amazement of coach Murat Yakin, VAR overturned a foul by Argentina’s Leandro Paredes and instead handed Breel Embolo a booking for simulation - his second of the game. For the second time during the knockout round, Argentina settled the match in extra-time. A 3-2 win secured a place in the semis.
#SelecciónMayor Julián Álvarez, un goleador hecho para las fases decisivas.
— 🇦🇷 Selección Argentina ⭐⭐⭐ (@Argentina) July 13, 2026
📝 https://t.co/app0B7i6si pic.twitter.com/FGoNc75aE7
In the Last Four, Argentina at last were set to face one of the big teams. England, at +700 to lift the trophy would give them their first real test - on top of all the intrigue and tension in the two nations’ long-standing rivalry. Tuchel’s team went ahead then mysteriously sat back - not a great idea against a dogged, gritty team like Argentina. Just like in each and every one of their previous three knockout ties, the cup holders resolved the match with a late goal - a Lautaro Martínez header on 92 minutes dumped the fourth-ranked Three Lions out.
Both to sum it up, Spain were dealt the toughest route but Argentina have had to work harder. La Roja faced three top-10 nations while Argentina only faced one.
Back-to-back #FIFAWorldCup Finals for Argentina 😤 pic.twitter.com/VfmPqqlEYL
— FIFA World Cup (@FIFAWorldCup) July 15, 2026
The tables below show each semifinalist’s opponents and the average FIFA World Ranking they have faced in both the group stage and knockout rounds.
Average FIFA World Ranking of each finalist’s opponents
| Team | Group stage average | Knockout stage average | Overall average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 48 | 10.25 | 26.4 |
| Argentina | 41.7 | 27.25 | 33.4 |
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