Spain vs. Argentina looms in the Round of 32 after Cape Verde upset
The bracket math has shifted dramatically, leaving La Roja with a huge probability of a brutal knockout game with the world champions.
Cape Verde made history today against Spain, securing their first-ever point in their first-ever World Cup match. The unexpected 0-0 draw stalled La Roja, a heavy pre-tournament favorite to take home the trophy and become world champions for the second time.
Spain totally dominated possession, but a resolute, disciplined defense from the World Cup debutants and an impressive performance from goalkeeper Vozinha earned the Blue Sharks the biggest upset of the tournament so far.
How Spain vs. Argentina could happen
With this draw, Spain has complicated its route to the championship. The winner of Group H (Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde, or Saudi Arabia) will play against the second-place of Group J (Argentina, Austria, Algeria, or Jordan). Conversely, the winner of Group J will face the second-place team from Group H.
Argentina, the defending World Cup champions, are heavily favored to win Group J. While little is expected on paper from Austria, Algeria, or Jordan, Cape Verde’s historic resilience proves that nothing is guaranteed in this World Cup.
According to statistics expert Nate Silver, there is now a 37% chance that Spain will face Argentina in the Round of 32. It is a blockbuster matchup that fans around the world are desperate to see, but one that would prematurely send home a tournament favorite.
Spain’s group stage matches
- Spain vs Saudi Arabia: June 21, Noon ET
- Spain vs Uruguay: June 26 at 4 p.m. ET
Spain has already played its easiest game on paper, and La Roja is now hoping for a draw between Saudi Arabia and Uruguay. A tie in that match would leave all four teams deadlocked at one point each, completely resetting the board in Group H.
In a 48-team tournament expanded for maximum drama, Spain has learned the hard way that there are no truly safe fixtures. If La Roja cannot find their clinical edge quickly, one of the modern game’s greatest international matchups could explode into reality far sooner than anyone anticipated.
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