Supercomputer does 10,000 simulations then predicts World Cup 2026 champion: where does your team finish?

The simulation was run 10,000 times before the World Cup model finally decided that the correct team to back for FIFA’s 2026 extravaganza is… France. And it’s a painful prediction for England who are tipped for more final heartbreak. (Although most fans I’ve spoken to would be delighted if they made it that far).

That’s right, just days before we kick of in the USA, Mexico and Canada, it is Les Blues who have been named as the predicted winners of the tournament by a supercomputer, hoisting the trophy aloft at MetLife Stadium on July 19.

The model, produced by betting comparison website FindSisterSites, gives France a 51.5% chance of winning the final itself and a 14.2% chance of winning the tournament overall. That would make it a second World Cup title in eight years for France, after their 2018 triumph and their penalty shootout defeat to Argentina in the 2022 final.

France backed to win another World Cup

For England, the prediction points to another brutal near-miss. Thomas Tuchel’s side are projected to top Group L and then make a statement run through the knockout rounds, beating Brazil in the quarter-finals and Argentina in the semi-finals before falling to France in the final.

That would follow England’s defeats in the Euro 2020 and Euro 2024 finals, against Italy and Spain respectively.

Hosts tipped for mixed fortunes

The United States are also tipped for a strong tournament on home soil. Mauricio Pochettino’s team are predicted to reach the quarter-finals, beating Senegal and Belgium before losing to European champions Spain.

The USMNT are projected to be the last host nation standing. Mexico are expected to reach the round of 16 before losing to England, while Canada are also tipped to exit at that stage against the Netherlands.

Argentina’s title defense is predicted to end in the semi-finals against England, in what could be Lionel Messi’s final World Cup. Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal, meanwhile, are projected to lose to Argentina in a heavyweight quarter-final.

Scotland, however, are not expected to escape the group stage. The model predicts Steve Clarke’s team will beat Haiti in their opener, but still fall short of the round of 32. Same old story for the wonderful Tartan Army then.

How the World Cup supercomputer works

The supercomputer is described as a probability model rather than a human prediction. It estimates each fixture using team strength, international ranking, recent form and betting market odds.

The tournament is then simulated 10,000 times, with the final projection built from the average of those simulations to reduce the effect of one-off freak results.

Here are the full list of knockout predictions:

Round of 32

• Match 1: South Korea v Canada
• Match 2: Brazil v Japan
• Match 3: Germany v Sweden
• Match 4: Netherlands v Morocco
• Match 5: Ecuador v Norway 
• Match 6: France v Iran 
• Match 7: Mexico v Ivory Coast
• Match 8: England v Uzbekistan
• Match 9: Belgium v Saudi Arabia
• Match 10: USA v Senegal 
• Match 11: Spain v Austria
• Match 12: Colombia v Croatia 
• Match 13: Switzerland v Algeria
• Match 14: Turkey v Egypt
• Match 15: Argentina v Uruguay
• Match 16: Portugal v Ghana

Round of 16

• Match 1: Canada v Netherlands
• Match 2: Germany v France
• Match 3: Brazil v Norway
• Match 4: Mexico v England
• Match 5: Colombia v Spain
• Match 6: USA v Belgium
• Match 7: Argentina v Turkey
• Match 8: Switzerland v Portugal

Quarter-Finals

• QF 1: France v Netherlands
• QF 2: Spain v USA
• QF 3: Brazil v England
• QF 4: Argentina v Portugal

Semi-Finals

• SF 1: France v Spain
• SF 2: England v Argentina 

Final

• France v England

Winner: France (51.5% probability – 14.2% probability overall)

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