The Tartan Army has taken the United States, and Boston in particular, by storm, but can the same be said about the Scotland national team at the 2026 World Cup? It’s too early to tell, but we will soon find out as they gear up to take on Brazil in a crucial Group C clash in Miami on Wednesday.

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Scotland are currently competing in their ninth World Cup, having failed to get beyond the group stage in their previous eight attempts, the worst such run of any nation to have qualified for that many tournaments.

They could, though, be on the brink of making history.

After their opening 1-0 win over Haiti and their 1-0 defeat to Morocco, the Scots have three points from their first two games, which puts them in a promising position heading into their final group match. The issue is that it’s against Brazil, who may not be quite as formidable as they once were but still possess a sprinkling of world-class stars and an elite coach in Carlo Ancelotti.

What happens if Scotland beat Brazil?

Should Scotland cause an almighty upset and defeat the South Americans, they will qualify for the round of 32, no questions asked.

They would likely finish second behind Morocco, unless the 2022 semifinalists surprisingly slip up against Haiti.

If they fail to win, that’s when things start to get complicated.

What happens if Scotland draw with Brazil?

A draw would take Scotland onto four points, which would not be enough for a top-two finish, even if Morocco lose to Haiti. However, it would very likely be enough for them to qualify as one of the eight best third-placed teams, with only four third-placed teams suffering an early exit.

That will depend on other results over the next few days. If Scotland get to four points, which would leave them with a goal difference of zero, they would need at least four third-placed teams to finish with no more than three points, or reach four points but have a negative goal difference.

Goal difference is the first tiebreaker when it comes to ranking third-placed teams across the 12 groups. That scenario will almost certainly play out.

Can Scotland qualify if they lose to Brazil?

Scotland could even qualify if they lose to Brazil, although their qualification hopes would probably depend on the margin of defeat.

A loss would leave them on three points, with their goal difference depending on the scoreline. A one-goal defeat, resulting in a goal difference of -1, would clearly give them a much better chance of progressing than a three-goal reverse, which would leave them with a -3 goal difference.

In fact, Opta predict that a team finishing on three points with a goal difference of -1 would have an 84% chance of reaching the round of 32. That drops to 63% for -2, 42% for -3, 27% for -4, and 19% for -5.

To qualify for the knockout stage despite a defeat, Scotland would be looking for at least four third-placed teams to collect no more than two points, or finish on three points with an inferior goal difference.

If multiple teams finish with the same record in terms of points and goal difference, goals scored is the next tiebreaker. Scotland have managed only one so far, John McGinn’s winner against Haiti in Boston on June 13.

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