LaLiga Primera predictions: week 30
A midweek feast of football as Barcelona face Sevilla and Real Madrid travel to play Leganés while Atletico Madrid welcome Real Sociedas to the Vicente Calderon.
Athletic –Espanyol (Tuesday 19:30) Prediction: home win
Athletic have the scent of Europe in their nostrils after back to back away victories over Real Sociedad and Osasuna lifted the Lions to within a point of Villarreal and two behind their local rivals in the race for Europa League action next season. They won't let that advantage slip at home with a full complement of players at Ernesto Valverde’s disposal against a side that have won only once on the road since last November.
Atlético – Real Sociedad (Tuesday 21:30) Prediction: home win
Not very long ago Atlético were nine points adrift of Sevilla and being hounded by Sociedad for the final Champions League spot. After a solid run for Diego Simeone’s side that panorama has changed entirely and it is now Sevilla who have to hold off the challenge of Eusebio’s entertaining side. Simeone may err on the side of pragmatism in the absence of Kevin Gameiro and with the Madrid derby four days off but Atleti’s home record and the visitor’s all-or-nothing approach to away games should benefit a team that has only conceded 12 in the Calderón while rattling in 32 at the other end.
Betis – Villarreal (Tuesday 21:30) Prediction: draw
Fran Escribá said this week that Villarreal deserve to qualify for Europe next season. The Oracle feels it deserves a long weekend in Lyme Regis in the company of Scarlett Johansson, but deserve doesn't always get. The Submarine have been beaten in consecutive games for only the second time this season and need to get back to winning ways sharpish. Betis were unlucky and negligent in equal measure in defeat at Espanyol and will be in no mood to give the visitors anything gratis so X may well mark the spot in the Villamarín.
Barcelona – Sevilla (Wednesday 19:30) Prediction: home win
Not very long ago Sevilla were nine points clear of Atlético and looking nailed on for automatic Champions League qualification at the very least, while talk of a title tilt was not outlandish. The loss to Leicester with history in their grasp has shaken Jorge Sampaoli's side to the core and the imminent departure of Monchi has cast even more of a shadow over a season that promised so much but may well end up delivering no more than a Champions League playoff. Whether Sampaoli will stick around for it remains to be seen but the player he may end up managing at international level returns for Barcelona after suspension and while there will be a few goals in this one, the smart bet is to back Leo Messi and company to score more than the visitors.
Alavés – Osasuna (Wednesday 20:30) Prediction: home win
Betting on Osasuna is like backing the turkeys to win the Christmas derby and although Alavés were not at their best in the Bernabéu last time out, few expected them to get anything out of that game anyway. Quite the opposite is true of the visit of an already doomed Osasuna. With Marcos Llorente back in the side and Theo, who is attracting interest from some of Europe’s wealthiest clubs, in scintillating form another evening of misery awaits any away fans who make the short trip to the Mendizorrotza.
Deportivo – Granada (Wednesday 20:30) Prediction: home win
Granada’s mini-revival, when the Nazaríes won three out of six, has ground to a halt with four straight defeats for Lucas Alcaraz’s relegation scrappers. The visitor’s five at the back system almost thwarted Atlético and Leganés but their last two fixtures have seen them leak seven in two games against Sporting and Barça. Depor will be made to work for it but the home side should sneak this one by a solitary goal.
Sporting – Málaga (Wednesday 20:30) Prediction: home win
Sporting have emerged as the likeliest of the current bottom three to escape the drop, particularly off the back of that win over Granada, and have taken five points from their last three games, their best return of the season since the opening three fixtures. Málaga have scarcely improved under new boss Míchel, the Anchovies’ third coach of the season, picking up just one point in three games. This is the kind of game Sporting have to win if they are to pull off another great escape and there has been little from Míchel’s Málaga so far to suggest the home side won’t do exactly that.
Leganés – Real Madrid (Wednesday 21:30) Prediction: away win
Leganés’ entire squad is valued at just over 43 million euros. Real’s comes in at a shade under 765 million. Say what you like about the competitiveness of LaLiga but that disparity is exactly the reason the suits have wisely decided to make television revenue a more equitable affair from next season. In 2016-17 though that is not going to help Leganés despite an unbeaten run of four games that has considerably strengthened their survival bid. That objective can be shelved until the next round of fixtures. If the visitors score early it could get ugly in Butarque; Real are overdue administering a proper walloping to someone.
Eibar – Las Palmas (Thursday 19:30) Prediction: home win
Eibar were spectacular in defeating Villarreal last weekend and there is a genuine belief among the squad that European football is an attainable goal. Four points now separate the Gunners from sixth and as we point out every week in this column, Las Palmas really cannot win an away game – the last time they did so was on the first day of the season. Since then Quique Setién’s side have picked up just three points on the road. In the away form table the Canary Islanders sit in 19th, level on points with Osasuna.
Valencia – Celta (Thursday 21:30) Prediction: away win
After careful consultation with a learned colleague, we’ve settled on the away win on the basis that Voro’s run of four wins and a draw at Mestalla is due for a reality check and Celta’s confidence will be up after two straight victories. Giuseppe Rossi helped himself to a hat-trick in the 3-1 victory over Las Palmas at the weekend and Iago Aspas is in the form of his life, suggesting that the Valencia back four, shorn of José Luis Gayá and Martín Montoya for this one, will struggle to prevent Celta’s wide men providing the ammunition for the front two.