Experts agree: these are the movies that critics and film websites predict will win the 2026 Oscars
With the Academy set to vote, online ratings offer a fascinating snapshot of which films and performances audiences and critics favor.
The 2026 Oscars are just around the corner, and predictions are heating up. While the Academy prepares to decide this year’s winners, movie fans and industry observers are making their own bets about which films will triumph in each category. To do that, many are turning to the scores reflected on platforms such as IMDb, Filmaffinity and Rotten Tomatoes.
Even so, those ratings are far from an exact metric, and they may not ultimately determine the winners. This year’s Oscars feature several strong contenders but no clear dominant favorite. Although The Sinners and One Battle After Another lead the nominations with 16 and 13 respectively, neither stands as an overwhelming frontrunner across categories. The answer will come in the early hours of Monday, March 16, when the 98th Academy Awards ceremony takes place.
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Best picture: what critics and audiences say
| Film | Rotten Tomatoes | IMDb | Filmaffinity |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Sinners | 97% (Critics) | 96% (Audience) | 7.5 | 6.5 |
| One Battle After Another | 94% (Critics) | 85% (Audience) | 7.7 | 7 |
| Bugonia | 87% (Critics) | 84% (Audience) | 7.4 | 6.9 |
| F1: The Movie | 82% (Critics) | 97% (Audience) | 7.6 | 6.8 |
| Frankenstein | 85% (Critics) | 94% (Audience) | 7.4 | 6.8 |
| Hamnet | 86% (Critics) | 92% (Audience) | 7.9 | 7.4 |
| Sentimental Value | 96% (Critics) | 95% (Audience) | 7.8 | 7.2 |
| Train Dreams | 94% (Critics) | 90% (Audience) | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Marty Supreme | 93% (Critics) | 82% (Audience) | 7.2 | 7.2 |
| The Secret Agent | 98% (Critics) | 82% (Audience) | 7.3 | 6.8 |
According to the numbers, there is no overwhelming favorite. However, The Sinners, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme and Train Dreams all boast strong scores, while Golden Globe winner Hamnet remains firmly in the conversation.
Best actor: who leads the race?
| Actor | Film | Rotten Tomatoes | IMDb | Filmaffinity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo DiCaprio | One Battle After Another | 94% (Critics) | 85% (Audience) | 7.7 | 7 |
| Timothée Chalamet | Marty Supreme | 93% (Critics) | 82% (Audience) | 7.8 | 7.2 |
| Ethan Hawke | Blue Moon | 90% (Critics) | 75% (Audience) | 6.8 | 6.4 |
| Michael B. Jordan | The Sinners | 97% (Critics) | 96% (Audience) | 7.5 | 6.5 |
| Wagner Moura | The Secret Agent | 98% (Critics) | 82% (Audience) | 7.3 | 6.8 |
Based on these figures, the leading contenders appear to be Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael B. Jordan and Timothée Chalamet, who already claimed the Golden Globe in the category.
Best actress: who leads the race?
| Actress | Film | Rotten Tomatoes | IMDb | Filmaffinity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessie Buckley | Hamnet | 86% (Critics) | 92% (Audience) | 7.9 | 7.4 |
| Rose Byrne | If I Could Kick You | 92% (Critics) | 79% (Audience) | 6.6 | 6.4 |
| Kate Hudson | Song Sang Blue | 77% (Critics) | 97% (Audience) | 7.3 | 6.7 |
| Renate Reinsve | Sentimental Value | 96% (Critics) | 95% (Audience) | 7.8 | 7.2 |
| Emma Stone | Bugonia | 87% (Critics) | 84% (Audience) | 7.4 | 6.9 |
As the data suggests, Renate Reinsve, Emma Stone and Golden Globe winner Jessie Buckley appear best positioned to take home the statuette.
Best director: filmmakers behind critically acclaimed films
| Director | Film | Rotten Tomatoes | IMDb | Filmaffinity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chloé Zhao | Hamnet | 86% (Critics) | 92% (Audience) | 7.9 | 7.4 |
| Ryan Coogler | The Sinners | 97% (Critics) | 96% (Audience) | 7.5 | 6.5 |
| Josh Safdie | Marty Supreme | 93% (Critics) | 82% (Audience) | 7.8 | 7.2 |
| Paul Thomas Anderson | One Battle After Another | 94% (Critics) | 85% (Audience) | 7.7 | 7 |
| Joachim Trier | Sentimental Value | 96% (Critics) | 95% (Audience) | 7.8 | 7.2 |
As in other categories, there is no runaway favorite, though predictions often point to Ryan Coogler, Chloé Zhao or Golden Globe winner Paul Thomas Anderson.
Best original screenplay: which scripts score highest?
| Writer | Film | Rotten Tomatoes | IMDb | Filmaffinity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Coogler | The Sinners | 97% (Critics) | 96% (Audience) | 7.5 | 6.5 |
| Robert Kaplow | Blue Moon | 90% (Critics) | 75% (Audience) | 6.8 | 6.4 |
| Jafar Panahi | A Simple Accident | 98% (Critics) | 93% (Audience) | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie | Marty Supreme | 93% (Critics) | 82% (Audience) | 7.8 | 7.2 |
| Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier | Sentimental Value | 96% (Critics) | 95% (Audience) | 7.8 | 7.2 |
Based on these parameters, the Oscar for best original screenplay could go to Coogler, though Panahi and the duo of Vogt and Trier also remain strong contenders.
Best adapted screenplay: five best picture nominees in contention
| Writer | Film | Rotten Tomatoes | IMDb | Filmaffinity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Thomas Anderson | One Battle After Another | 94% (Critics) | 85% (Audience) | 7.7 | 7 |
| Will Tracy | Bugonia | 87% (Critics) | 84% (Audience) | 7.4 | 6.9 |
| Guillermo del Toro | Frankenstein | 85% (Critics) | 94% (Audience) | 7.4 | 6.8 |
| Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell | Hamnet | 86% (Critics) | 93% (Audience) | 7.9 | 7.4 |
| Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar | Train Dreams | 94% (Critics) | 90% (Audience) | 7.5 | 6.8 |
Once again, the category lacks a clear frontrunner, though the adaptations of Frankenstein, Hamnet and Bugonia are frequently mentioned among the favorites.
Best international feature: a category where surprises are common
| Film | Rotten Tomatoes | IMDb | Filmaffinity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sirat | 91% (Critics) | 66% (Audience) | 7 | 6.2 |
| The Secret Agent | 98% (Critics) | 82% (Audience) | 7.3 | 6.8 |
| A Simple Accident | 98% (Critics) | 93% (Audience) | 7.5 | 6.9 |
| Sentimental Value | 96% (Critics) | 95% (Audience) | 7.8 | 7.2 |
| The Voice of Hind Rajab | 95% (Critics) | 100% (Audience) | 8.3 | 7.4 |
In this category, where Spain is represented by Sirat, the main favorites appear to be The Secret Agent– which already won the Golden Globe – and Sentimental Value. Still, The Voice of Hind Rajab could emerge as a surprise contender thanks to its exceptionally strong ratings.
Best animated feature: will the year’s phenomenon triumph?
| Film | Rotten Tomatoes | IMDb | Filmaffinity |
|---|---|---|---|
| KPop Demon Hunters | 92% (Critics) | 99% (Audience) | 7.5 | 6.6 |
| Arco | 92% (Critics) | 88% (Audience) | 7.4 | 7.1 |
| Elio | 83% (Critics) | 89% (Audience) | 6.6 | 6 |
| Little Amelie | 98% (Critics) | 91% (Audience) | 7.5 | 7.3 |
| Zootopia 2 | 91% (Critics) | 96% (Audience) | 7.4 | 6.7 |
One of the most unpredictable categories of the night. Although KPop Demon Hunters broke multiple records in 2025, all of its competitors boast equally strong scores.
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