2027 Social Security COLA estimates: How much your monthly check could increase next year

There is still a long way to go until the Social Security Administration announces the Cost-of-Living-Adjustment (COLA) increase for 2027. However, early forecasts are predicting that it will surpass the 2.8% boost applied to Social Security benefits at the beginning of this year.

Current estimates by The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) project that the 2027 COLA will be 3.3%. This is outpacing earlier forecasts as higher energy prices since the start of the Israel and U.S. war against Iran as well as other disruptions from the conflict rippled through the economy.

This current projection is based on recent inflation data, but the SSA will use the data from July through September, comparing prices this year to last year, in order to calculate the 2027 COLA.

“Inflation is a huge wild card, especially with the potential for repercussions from the Iran war affecting prices of a wide range of products in the coming months,” notes TSCL, a non-profit organization that advocates for seniors. “Don’t be surprised if COLA estimates for 2027 rise this summer based on new inflation data.”

How is the COLA calculated?

The SSA compares the average CPI-W for July, August, and September of the current year to the same period in the previous year. The percentage difference determines the COLA, which is applied to Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments starting in January of the following year.

Unfortunately for seniors, TSCL highlights that the COLA increase doesn’t fully fulfil its mission of keeping benefits in line with inflation. This is due to the use of the CPI-W to calculate the annual boost to benefits but this indicator doesn’t necessarily cover the household price increases that seniors experience.

The non-profits said in a 2024 report that the average Social Security payment has lost around 20% of its buying power since 2010. Furthermore, seniors have already had to deal with the effects of inflation over the year before that receive their first payment with the COLA boost seen in their January benefits.

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