Does Trump still want Greenland? Here are the possible scenarios according to experts

The island of Greenland has been part of Denmark since the 18th century. They have their own local government and a parliament that oversees some of their domestic and civil affairs, but their laws regarding economy, national security, and defense are governed by Denmark. Denmark has, however, recognized Greenland’s right to independence at a time of its choosing.

In 2019, during Donald Trump’s first term as president of the United States, he made his intentions clear about wanting to buy Greenland. At the time, many saw it as a joke. Now that he’s in his second term, however, he’s declared that he will acquire Greenland “one way or the other”, despite Greenland’s Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede saying it’s “not for sale - it can’t be taken - it’s ours”.

Global warming, the evolving economy, and international tensions have made Greenland a key focus in discussions about global security and trade, and Trump wants the U.S. to control the mineral-rich Arctic territory. Because of this, the Greenlanders feel the urgency to be in control of their own destiny and the PM called an early parliamentary election for Tuesday. According to the BBC, “One poll found that 85% of Greenlanders do not wish to become a part of the United States, and nearly half see Trump’s interest as a threat.”

According to experts, there are a few ways that Trump’s intention to acquire Greenland could play out.

Potential scenarios in Trump’s quest for Greenland

Greenland becomes independent and joins U.S. willingly

While most Greenlanders have indicated they would like to be an independent country, it would be on the condition that they still have the same quality of life that they have under Denmark’s governance. However, polls have indicated that most Greenlanders do not want Greenland to be part of the United States.

“We don’t want to be Americans, nor Danes. We are Kalaallit,” wrote the Prime Minister on Facebook. Kalaallit is the Greenlandic Inuit ethnic name for the people of Greenland.

Trump buys Greenland

Although Egede says Greenland is not for sale, it’s not unheard of for the U.S. to buy a territory they want to own - it’s what they did with the Virgin Islands in 1917, buying it from none other than Denmark for the price of $25 million.

It’s unlikely to happen now with Greenland, but according to Wikistrat, the U.S. could potentially offer to lease Greenland for an extended period, though it would require both Denmark and Greenland to agree to it. Another possibility is that Greenland could grant partial control over its security and foreign policy in exchange for about $800 million in yearly subsidies (which Denmark currently provides).

Trump threatens Greenland and Denmark into submission

Trump has been using tariffs to get what he wants from Canada, Mexico, and China. He’s also threatened to use tariffs on the European Union recently, which includes Denmark. It’s possible he could increase tariffs on Danish goods to try to force them to hand over Greenland.

International law firm Pillsbury says that Trump could use the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act in order to impose the tariffs on Denmark. This act gives the U.S. president the power to raise tariffs on the basis of national and economic security.

Trump invades Greenland

While Trump has expressed interest in making Canada the 51st state, he’s ruled out using military force to do so. The same cannot be said for Greenland, raising concerns about a potential U.S. invasion. NATO’s defense clause states that an attack against any member state is an attack on them all, but the U.S. and Denmark are both members of NATO. However, the article in the agreement also cannot be invoked by one NATO ally against another, so things get a bit complicated there.

In his address to Congress on Tuesday, however, Trump stated that he strongly supports Greenland’s “right to determine its own future”, so it‘s unclear if he’s willing to use military force. But again, he has not strictly ruled it out as just seconds later is when he said the U.S. would “get it, one way or the other”.

Trump gives up the idea

According to professor Anne Merrild of Aalborg University, who researches the Arctic and its resources, Trump could achieve the control he wants and the ease the security concerns he has by taking control of Greenland’s mineral licenses rather than acquiring the island itself.

“These objectives could likely be achieved through negotiations between Greenland and the U.S. without the need for any form of U.S. takeover,” said Merrild.

The U.S. has a military base in Greenland called Thule Air Base. They could theoretically deploy more troops there and upgrade their missile defense systems to create new Arctic infrastructure, so long as Greenland and Denmark agreed.

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